Jan 18, 2020, 9:59 AM ET

Inside Iran: what's next?

The Iranian regime is expected to remain internally unsettled and politically volatile following the plane disaster and economic gloom, with no immediate prediction of regime collapse despite internal factional uncertainty surrounding the eventual succession of Ayatollah Khamenei.
Current leadership expresses significant worry yet shows no intention of conceding to protesters; instead, the regime is forecasted to prioritize retaining power at all costs, likely resulting in continued personnel changes such as retirements and calls for the President's resignation.
Ongoing economic neglect is projected to fuel sustained domestic unrest, while the regime's status as a global pariah under crushing sanctions is anticipated to persist regardless of Soleimani's death.
In foreign policy, the regime is expected to maintain a grip on power by continuing uranium enrichment, stirring conflict throughout the wider Middle East, and seeking revenge for Soleimani's death through covert, deniable proxy assassinations targeting soft targets including American businessmen and Jewish diplomats.
Future attacks on Americans could trigger a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, creating a highly risky scenario where the subsequent collapse of Iraq into fracturing Shia, Sunni Arab, and Kurdish factions allows for the resurgence of the Islamic State.