Panel, Conference Presentation
Investing in Ukraine's Future | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteGillian Tett, Philip Bennett, Xavier Bettel, Wladimir Klitschko, Oleksandra Matviichuk, Yuriy Vitrenko
- Peace prospects are currently viewed as having a very low chance due to Ukraine's military confidence and the absence of urgent government incentives to negotiate, though a peace deal or armistice is estimated to have a probability exceeding 50% within the next year, contingent on pressure forcing Putin to save face.
- The conflict is expected to continue indefinitely, requiring investors to distinguish between opportunities arising during active warfare versus a post-conflict environment, with specific focus on digitalization, defense, energy, and agribusiness sectors.
- Investment strategies are projected to span both conflict and non-conflict phases, with the EBRD anticipating annual investments of roughly $2.5 billion during the war, potentially rising to $3–4 billion if a non-conflict situation is achieved.
- Rebuilding requirements are estimated at $200 billion for energy-related sectors alone and approximately $700 billion in total, necessitating a funding mix of grants, credits, and subsidies, with a significant emphasis on privatizing state-owned energy companies and banks.
- Nuclear energy development is forecasted to include Ukraine as a test market for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), with American companies like Holtec expected to begin supplying units starting in 2029.
- Political and legal risks include the potential for the U.S. to negotiate separately with Russia regarding Lugansk and Donetsk, the lack of jurisdictional certainty regarding frozen Russian assets, and the possibility of impunity or weakened sanctions within future agreements.
- Investor protections are expected to rely heavily on government guarantees, the rule of law within an EU framework, and the confiscation of frozen Russian assets as both interest and principal to address legal and moral damages.
- Economic and military recovery plans are anticipated to begin immediately rather than waiting for a peace settlement, driven by the need for long-lasting partnerships, joint business projects, and the application of justice to ensure sustainable peace.
- Future diplomatic outcomes may include a "Korean-style" modified scenario or an armistice if free world strength compels recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty, while geopolitical shifts involving U.S. leadership and prominent businessmen could accelerate deal-making.
- The war has positioned Ukraine as the second-largest global drone maker, representing an astonishing transformation in the future of warfare and creating unique investment opportunities in human capital and technology.