Interview, Panel, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?
- The conflict is expected to continue for an extended duration, as the Islamic Republic seeks to prevent an internal existential crisis and survive through repression, with a revolution deemed unlikely to succeed due to a lack of unity, mobilization, and planning within the war context.
- Military resolution is anticipated where U.S. and allied forces degrade Iran's ballistic missile, defense industrial, and nuclear capabilities, potentially allowing a declaration of military victory even while Iran maintains asymmetric threats via low-cost drones.
- A strategic pivot for ending the war relies on U.S. and allied capabilities to open the Strait of Hormuz through convoy protection, leveraging contingency plans rehearsed for 15 years and assets from France, the UK, Greece, Australia, Japan, and Korea.
- Convoy operations through the straits are projected to achieve only approximately 20% of normal daily oil flow, with shipping, insurance, and tankering companies requiring significant lag time to assess threats, meaning there is no immediate on-off switch for the conflict.
- While a unilateral U.S. end to the war is viewed as unlikely without a change in the strait's control, the death of Ali Larijani created a leadership gap for mediation, though Russia is expected to play a major role and China may pressure Iran due to oil dependency.
- Iran's leadership is expected to remain focused on regime survival until economic collapse and sanctions force a pivot inward, with the President potentially claiming success regarding degraded targets within five years, provided the Strait of Hormuz is no longer under Iranian control.
- A mediated resolution is considered the most probable path to a deal, as the lack of credible internal figures to orchestrate an end or manage authority makes a quick political resolution unlikely absent external pressure or successful convoy operations.