Interview
Is Putin‘s narrative working?
- Historical Context of 1945: On May 9, 1945, the surrender of Nazi Germany sparked spontaneous, uncontrolled celebrations among the Soviet public, who mourned 27 million losses while embracing Western Allies; these "people's victory" sentiments initially spooked Stalin, as they were not state-orchestrated.
- Stalin's Narrative Transformation: During the Cold War, Stalin reframed this common liberation victory into a tool for resentment and revanchism, claiming the Allies had deprived the Soviet Union of its historical role and recognition for its sacrifices.
- Putin's Ideological Continuity: Vladimir Putin has revived Stalin's strategy by converting the 1945 victory into a resource for confrontation with the West, using it to legitimize his rule and militarism in a fragmenting world.
- Legitimacy via Military Victory: Russian leadership legitimacy rests not on democratic institutions or monarchic transitions, but exclusively on military victories; consequently, Putin has created an "inter-religious cult" linking WWII to a continuous chain of wars from Afghanistan and Chechnya to Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
- Ukraine War as Reenactment: The full-scale invasion of Ukraine was initiated as a "cosplay" of Victory Day, with expectations of parading in Kiev within three days to fulfill the narrative of a renewed Soviet-style triumph.
- Public Support Metrics: Polling indicates that less than 20% of Russians desire the annexation of Donbass or Ukraine, suggesting a lack of territorial expansionism; however, support remains high for "great power status" derived from the historical foundation of the 1945 victory.
- Propaganda Mobilization: Preparations for the upcoming celebration include reenactments of battle scenes, children in uniforms, and massive screens installed on the Russian side of the Narva River facing NATO member Estonia.
- Diplomatic Isolation: Unlike the 1995 and 2005 commemorations which featured Western leaders, the 80th-anniversary event will exclude Allied powers, leaving Russia isolated and dependent on China.
- Key Guest Appearance: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow to attend the parade, standing as the primary international figure alongside Putin, marking Russia's shift from a joint anti-Nazi victory to a dependency on non-Western alliances.
- Strategic Reversal: The current geopolitical alignment mirrors the immediate post-WWII period of the Cold War, with Russia effectively cut off from the West and the concept of a "joint victory" completely severed.