Interview
Is Putin‘s narrative working?
- Vladimir Putin's regime will utilize the upcoming Victory Day parade to reinforce its legitimacy and continuity of militarism, featuring a limited attendance of former Soviet leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while Western allies remain absent.
- The Russian leadership anticipates the event will serve as a tool for confrontation with the West rather than shared commemoration, explicitly breaking from the 1995 and 2005 precedents of joint Western participation.
- Public support for the current regime is projected to persist to an extent due to national memory of 27 million war sacrifices, though the desire for annexation of Donbass or Ukraine is expected to remain at or below 20%.
- The state plans to frame its foreign policy and legitimacy around a continuous chain of wars from 1945 through Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia, and the invasion of Ukraine, viewing military victories as essential for political survival.
- Russia is expected to remain isolated from Western powers and increasingly dependent on China, reversing its 1995 and 2005 aspirations to join a Western-aligned international order.
- The parade is characterized as a reenactment of the failed 2022 expectation to capture Kiev in three days, reflecting a "pageantry of victory mania" that will occur near the NATO border in Estonia.
- The regime relies on an "inter-religious cult" of war victories to maintain internal cohesion and views the perceived deprivation of recognition for its World War II role by the Allies as a justification for resentment and revanchism.