Interview
Is Takaichi Sanae the most powerful woman in the world? | The Economist
Prime Minister Takaichi's Background and Election Mandate
- Sanae Takaichi is Japan's first female Prime Minister, distinguishing herself from previous leaders who were often the sons of former officials; she hails from an ordinary middle-class background.
- She is characterized by a "mold-breaking" public persona, including her history as a university heavy metal drummer, motorbike riding, and the popularity of her iconic handbag.
- At 62, her age is average for Japanese Prime Ministers, though her leadership style is described as refreshingly unconventional.
- Her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured an unprecedented majority, described as the largest mandate any party has held since the end of World War II.
- Despite her outsider persona, she is a 30-year veteran of the establishment LDP, tasked with countering populist disruptors rather than dismantling the party machinery.
- The election occurred amidst a historic snowstorm in Tokyo, adding uncertainty to the fluid political moment before her victory was confirmed.
Defense Spending and Security Strategy
- Takaichi's primary campaign slogan focuses on making Japan "stronger and prosperous," with the "stronger" component centered on expanding the military.
- She already lifted defense spending to 2% of GDP via a supplementary budget in October upon taking office, though this is noted as a target lower than NATO's current preferred benchmarks.
- The shift represents a departure from the post-WWII constitutional interpretation that limited Japan's forces to defensive roles only.
- Her security strategy builds upon the roadmap set by her mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but aims to accelerate the pace of military modernization.
- The driver for this acceleration is the combination of China's rapid military expansion and perceived unreliability of the US security umbrella.
- Takaichi plans to pursue a constitutional revision to formalize the military's status, a move requiring a two-thirds majority in both legislative chambers.
Geopolitical Tensions with China and the Taiwan Strait
- Takaichi recently provoked a hostile diplomatic reaction by stating that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would affect Japan's "essential interests," implying potential Japanese intervention.
- This statement broke with the longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity held by previous Japanese and US administrations regarding Taiwan.
- China responded aggressively, with a Consul General threatening her, and retaliated by banning Chinese tourism, significantly impacting Japan's growing tourism sector.
- Analysts view her initial comment as a diplomatic mistake that contradicts her intentions but believe she will not retract the position due to its domestic political utility.
- The stance has generated a "rally around the flag" effect, consolidating her image as a tough leader capable of standing up to Japan's hostile neighbors.
- This hardened posture is expected to complicate future negotiations on constitutional revision, which China will likely oppose vigorously.
Future Outlook and Domestic Context
- Takaichi faces a challenging timeline where the urgency of regional threats requires faster military growth than her previous "gentle" approach allowed.
- While 2% of GDP is a significant step, experts note that this level may still be insufficient to match the scale of China's naval and air force expansion.
- The current administration's majority provides the political capital necessary to attempt constitutional changes, but the success of such moves remains uncertain given the domestic and international hurdles.
- The administration acknowledges the difficulty of balancing economic prosperity goals with the massive fiscal demands of a rapid military buildup.
- Japan's geopolitical trajectory is increasingly viewed as a harbinger of global security trends, specifically the need for US allies to assume greater defense responsibilities.