Interview, Fireside Chat, Webinar
John Preskill on Quantum Computing
- Devices containing 50 to 100 well-controlled qubits are predicted within a couple of years, with these small near-term systems expected to be experimented with over the next five years.
- Microsoft is projected to validate a topological qubit soon, possibly by next year, which could enable two-qubit gates with error rates of one in a million compared to the current one in a thousand.
- Superconducting circuit coherence times have historically increased by a factor of 10 every three years for the past 15 years.
- Near-term optimization problems are anticipated to be best addressed through hybrid classical methods incorporating classical feedback.
- Quantum computing access in the near term is expected to occur primarily via cloud interfaces rather than desktop or pocket devices, with room-temperature quantum smart cards remaining a distant possibility.
- A quantum computer capable of breaking current public key crypto systems is not considered likely within the next 10 years, though such capability is deemed plausible within 50 years.
- The transition to post-quantum cryptographic protocols is expected to be driven by concerns regarding adversaries with quantum capabilities.
- Global scaling of quantum key distribution is anticipated to require quantum repeaters utilizing quantum error correction.
- Significant economic impact from improved quantum sensing is expected in the relatively near future, particularly in biological and medical applications.
- In the next couple of decades, laboratories are expected to develop the sophistication to control highly entangled complex quantum systems and potentially create emergent geometries described as "little toy space time."
- An intuitive public understanding of quantum mechanics is projected to emerge over a few decades, with 10-year-olds potentially engaging with quantum games.
- Policy decisions regarding technical innovation may be influenced by increased scientific training in government agencies such as the Department of Energy.
- The Bay Area is identified as the likely "Quantum Valley" due to the concentration of recent quantum startups.
- Professionals capable of communicating across software, hardware, and control engineering boundaries are expected to be highly valuable in the quantum computing sector.