Kaja Kallas: can the European Union survive in an era of strongmen?

China's Strategic Stance on Ukraine

• Chinese Foreign Policy Chief Wang Yi reportedly conveyed to Representative Kaya Kalas that China is not interested in the war ending, as a ceasefire would allow the United States to redirect its strategic focus toward China.
• Chinese officials reportedly view the continued conflict as serving China's self-interest, a position Representative Kalas characterized as accepting civilian casualties and urban destruction for geopolitical gain.
• While the war is described as unpopular among the Chinese public, leadership utilizes the narrative of American containment to justify their role as key enablers of Russia's war effort.

European Leverage and Economic Vulnerabilities

• Europe possesses significant economic leverage over China due to market size, yet currently fails to utilize it effectively due to a lack of unified member state coordination.
• During US-China disputes, Europe has acted as "collateral damage," such as when China restricted rare earth mineral supplies, leaving European economies with no protective power.
• Two primary geopolitical concerns dominate European-Chinese relations: China's use of economic coercion (including export controls) and its facilitation of Russia's war machine.

Strategic Responses and Diversification

• The proposed European solution involves building global partnerships across the Indo-Pacific, Latin America, and Africa to create diversified supply chains and reduce dependency on single sources.
• Representative Kalas notes that geopolitical power is only effective when a nation possesses the leverage to "turn away" from a rival; high dependency on Chinese imports for batteries, electric vehicles, and ships currently limits European agency.
• Europe has established an Instrument to Counter Economic Coercion, but it has never been deployed due to the difficulty of achieving consensus among 27 member states.

Structural Disadvantages and Power Dynamics

• A fundamental asymmetry exists between the West's slow, multi-democratic decision-making processes and the rapid, unilateral executive authority of strongmen leaders like Trump, Xi, and Putin.
• While strongmen often derive power from unpredictability, Representative Kalas argues that China and Russia are actually highly predictable regarding their long-term strategic goals, citing President Xi's 2007 statement on "unforeseen changes in 100 years."
• Western leaders initially failed to anticipate the invasion of Ukraine because their "democratic lens" could not comprehend the willingness of authoritarian regimes to ignore international rules and cause massive destruction.

Future Outlook

• The predictability of current geopolitical rivals forces the West to confront the reality that their own values and decision-making structures are being tested in a "rough world."
• Future European strategy relies on consolidating internal unity to activate existing tools against economic coercion, recognizing that backup options and alternative supply chains are prerequisites for effective retaliation.