Interview
Keep Kamala and carry on: Harris’s smooth route
The EconomistKamala, Harris, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Daniel Franklin, Sam Colbert, Catherine Ferry
- Kamala Harris is projected to be swiftly elected as the Democratic nominee with significant delegate backing, uniting the party around her while prioritizing speed and unity over a competitive selection process.
- The campaign is expected to benefit from a surge in fundraising, having raised $81 million in a short timeframe to exceed Donald Trump's $53 million post-conviction haul, effectively removing previous financial constraints.
- Harris aims to leverage Joe Biden's support and launch a focused attack on Trump, highlighting his status as a convicted felon and her record as a prosecutor, while facing counter-attacks regarding her liberal positioning, high crime record in California, and border management as Vice President.
- Although polling may lag in confirming her competitive viability against Trump, the overall election odds are expected to shift away from Trump as the campaign transitions from a "grim" outlook under Biden to a potentially competitive race.
- In China, the number of new billion-dollar startups is falling rapidly, with domestic creation expected to reach only half the pace of the U.S., driven by foreign capital withdrawal due to U.S. interest rates and eroded trust.
- State capital is likely to replace lost foreign investment but will impose strict conditions requiring job creation, local investment, or prioritization of government-approved hard tech sectors like semiconductors and green technology, creating friction with profit-focused business models.
- Entrepreneurs and investors remain pessimistic about the government's ability to resolve structural contradictions in the startup environment, citing a lack of reliable capital access, unstable business confidence, and restricted experimental freedom.
- The UK beach hut market is characterized by limited supply and rare transactions, often kept within families, while local councils restrict new construction to preserve views, and demand is expected to dip slightly due to tighter rules on second property ownership.