Interview
Key lessons from five months of war in Ukraine | Samuel Charap (2022)
- The conflict in Ukraine is projected to continue for the foreseeable future, with a major counteroffensive anticipated within the next few months that carries potential for tactical or operational success but also risks failure.
- Russia is expected to persist in efforts to secure remaining Donbass territories, while Ukraine faces significant difficulty accepting even de facto Russian control over the southern regions, complicating any potential political settlement.
- Putin is unlikely to escalate to the point of triggering a revolution in domestic order or initiating a dramatic escalation involving NATO unless Russia faces desperation, with self-restraint on the use of force expected barring a battlefield shift.
- The Russian economy is projected to slow between 5% and 10% this year, with long-term growth severely limited as the nation evolves into a more primitive economy unable to sustain sanctions via temporary measures.
- Future stability is contingent on a settlement or armistice, as fighting is currently preventing new arms control negotiations, with a specific time constraint to negotiate a new treaty before the New START expiration in 2026.
- Prospects for a settlement are diminishing due to potential Russian annexations which would invalidate previous proposals like the Istanbul agreement, alongside political hurdles such as Western leaders' reluctance to engage Putin and difficulties ratifying new treaties in the US.
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