Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Look, Ma, No Hands! The Future of Cars
Milken InstituteJohn Cassessa, Chris Gerdes, Raj Nair, Chris Urmson, Kevin Vincent, Eric Schmidt, Eric Schwartzmann, Eric Schuartzmond, Carl Harris, Joe Greener
- The automobile industry is characterized as being at a "significant inflection point" where automation technology has advanced sufficiently to increase industry belief, though full driverless availability is projected for timeframes ranging between six and 25 years, with many experts noting it will not occur within the next year.
- Regulatory bodies like NHTSA anticipate mandating vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications and forward collision avoidance systems across the fleet, but these rules are not expected to be issued immediately, with V2I infrastructure requiring incremental rollout due to extensive requirements and government budget constraints.
- Manufacturers and researchers have conducted extensive testing, including Google's 700,000 miles on public roads and Ford's deployment of sensors for adaptive cruise control and congestion avoidance, with future validation expected to rely heavily on millions of miles in simulation.
- Consumer adoption is viewed as a gradual process driven by generational shifts and comfort with incremental technologies like adaptive cruise control, with surveys indicating 57% global and roughly 60% U.S. support for driverless concepts, despite anticipated privacy concerns regarding V2V communications.
- Economic and social benefits include potential fuel savings of approximately 10% for the rear truck in platooning operations, elimination of parking needs to free up land for mixed-use space, and significant time reclamation for users, while the industry models suggest a shift toward shared mobility and the "internet of things."
- Risks and challenges involve the difficulty of keeping the driver in the loop during mode transitions, the need to program ethical decision-making for emergency scenarios, and the potential long-term elimination of driving jobs, though short-term innovation is expected to create employment.
- Future vehicle functions will likely include tunable settings such as sport or comfort modes, the ability to self-park, and "graduated driving" systems that transfer control to inexperienced drivers based on demonstrated competence, alongside a theoretical possibility of vehicles programmed to drive above speed limits which speakers hope will be mitigated.
- Industry participants expect the "inevitable march" toward blended human-machine driving to become a certainty within the next 20 years, with businesses adapting to security infrastructure investment pressures and the changing model of transportation as a service rather than solely ownership.