Interview
Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time – Ada Palmer
- Italian governments face recurrent instability and displacement due to a severed thread of institutional continuity, creating a cycle where nearly every administration is ripe for replacement.
- Papal turnover, occurring roughly every ten years with a high probability of new monarchs opposing their predecessors, generates unique instability compared to the rest of Europe, as each pope may dismantle the prior administration's work.
- Stability requires a single individual to amass power with hereditary staying power in the region to strongly influence the selection of the next pope, preventing the constant overthrowing of pawns.
- The failure of Cesare Borgia's conquest of Florence is attributed to a sequence of uncontrollable misfortunes, including illness and the premature death of the puppet Pius III, suggesting that even successful expansion is precarious without continuous external control.
- Political power secured through mercenaries or great powers remains inherently precarious, while power gained via lying, oath-breaking, or unfaithfulness is only sustainable if the ruler is sufficiently terrifying to deter betrayal by allies.
- A strategy invested in being loved requires perpetual maintenance or the concurrent cultivation of fear, whereas a strategy invested in being feared allows for actions unavailable to a ruler relying on love.
- Rule based on fear of punishment for breaking oaths provides significantly greater stability than rule based on promises, as people will act badly as far as they are allowed to without checks and balances.
- Multiple political parties may exist simultaneously within a state to compete and vent societal tension, with stable internal city parties allowing for adjustments in power distribution.
- Accumulating corruption within the papacy over generations necessitates a massive restoration, similar to the Reformation or the reforms of St. Francis and St. Dominic, to prevent institutions from collapsing under their own weight.
- Failure to return institutions to their foundational principles leads to inevitable collapse, while a secular, military, and corrupt papacy will eventually trigger a massive movement against it.