Measuring the Reopening of America

Reopening Scale Development

• Created to quantify the impact of staggered state and municipal relaxations of social distancing on human behavior.
• Leverages novel, high-frequency datasets previously unavailable, including OpenTable restaurant traffic and anonymized location data from Google and Apple.
• Aims to track shifts in population density across specific venues: parks, retail locations, grocery stores, workplaces, and residences.

Key Consumer Behavioral Indicators

• E-commerce: Identified as a primary beneficiary of the shift, with heavy monitoring of platforms including Amazon, Walmart, Wayfair, and Etsy.
• Digital Engagement: Video chat usage surged nearly 1,500%; this metric is expected to flatten or decline as physical social interactions resume.
• Recovery Metrics: Tracking restaurant traffic, airfare spend, and ride-sharing volume (Uber, Lyft) as proxies for return-to-commute behavior.
• Local Economy Signals: Monitoring Starbucks app downloads to gauge the resumption of morning routines and office returns.

Corporate Performance Divergence

• Ride-Sharing (Uber):
  • Reported demand declines of 70% to 90% in specific markets.
  • Early signs of recovery in reopening states, with week-over-week volume increases nearing 50%.
  • New York City recorded a 14% week-over-week volume increase despite heavy lockdown status.
• Digital Payments (PayPal):
  • New account signups grew 135% due to the inability to use cash and a shift toward online transactions.
  • May 1st marked the company's busiest day in its 22-year history.
• Analysts view these high-frequency corporate reports as predictive indicators for broader economic trends.

Industrial Sector Impact

• Logistics: Freight and trucking load factors increased significantly to support e-commerce delivery and warehouse supply chains.
• Heavy Manufacturing & Capital Equipment: Activity down 90% or more in sectors such as aircraft manufacturing, heavy machinery rentals, and auto production.
• Industrial data is characterized as lagging behind consumer metrics, with recovery signals expected to emerge as production lines restart.