Modi behaviour: will India retaliate against Pakistan?

Escalating India-Pakistan Tensions Following Kashmir Attack

• Indian troops and Pakistani forces exchanged overnight small arms fire across the disputed border for four consecutive days, while the Indian navy conducted long-range missile drills as recent as yesterday.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to "identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers," signaling a serious intent for military retaliation following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Pahalgan, Kashmir, on April 22.
• The Pahalgan attack, which targeted Hindu men, stands as the deadliest assault on tourists in Kashmir since the insurgency began in 1989 and the bloodiest attack on all targets since a 2019 suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian policemen.
• India has suspended the 1960 river-sharing treaty, expelled Pakistani diplomats and citizens, and closed the only land border crossing, while Pakistan retaliated by ejecting Indian diplomats, suspending visas, halting bilateral trade, and threatening to withdraw from the 1972 Shimla Agreement defining the Kashmir border.
• Most current diplomatic and economic countermeasures are largely symbolic, as trade and travel links between the nations have been limited since India revoked Jammu and Kashmir's semi-autonomous status in 2019.

Risk Assessment of Potential Military Action

• A high probability exists of an Indian military response within the next few days or weeks, driven by public pressure and precedents set in 2016 (ground forces) and 2019 (airstrikes).
• Analysts warn that any Indian military escalation carries the risk of triggering a broader conflagration, as Pakistan would likely respond in kind, potentially drawing attention back to the Kashmir dispute.
• The current situation is deemed more dangerous than 2019 because the United States exerts less influence in Pakistan following its 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, reducing a key restraining force on both sides.
• Potential Indian responses under discussion include limited strikes on militant targets within Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, intensified international isolation of Pakistan leveraging strengthened US ties, and stepped-up covert actions including targeted killings of militant leaders.

The Economics of Religion: Market Dynamics in Faith

• Church attendance in developed nations has declined significantly, dropping from 70% to 45% among Americans since 1999 and shrinking by nearly half in Italy over the last decade.
• Research from the University of Oxford suggests a negative correlation in highly religious societies between years of religious education and the likelihood of voting for religious candidates, challenging the assumption that knowledge equates to godliness.
• In highly religious societies, religious practice often functions as an economic "signal" for social conformity; increased education correlates with less public display of faith rather than greater piety.
• Contrary to the idea that charity fosters faith, research indicates people report higher religiosity when they are poorest rather than when churches provide substantial material welfare or social services.
• Witnesses to miracles are more likely to identify as religious but less likely to attend church services compared to their rational counterparts, suggesting divine intervention does not consistently drive institutional participation.

Tax Incentives and Church Growth

• A forthcoming paper by Brazilian economists indicates that federal tax breaks from 1992 to 2018, covering approximately one-third of total religious profits, resulted in a one-third increase in the number of open churches compared to the baseline.
• These tax incentives are associated with an 8% increase in votes for evangelical politicians, who are noted for their efficient management of church finances relative to Catholic counterparts.
• Economic incentives appear to drive church growth indirectly by increasing the profit margins for successful pastors, who are often compensated based on congregation size, thereby incentivizing aggressive recruitment and expansion.
• The prevailing theory is that well-resourced, visible clergy benefit from tax breaks, potentially enhancing their perceived legitimacy and ability to attract followers rather than directly persuading worshippers.

Continued Reliance on Magnetic Tape Technology

• The US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) recently claimed to save $1 million by migrating data from the General Services Administration off magnetic tape, labeling the 70-year-old technology obsolete and inefficient for sequential searching.
• Government technologists and private sector experts, including Google, continue to rely on magnetic tape for archiving vast amounts of data due to its ability to remain offline (air-gapped), which prevents hacking, requires no power for storage, and offers significantly lower costs than hard drives.
• Global demand for tape storage is surging, with manufacturers shipping 153 exabytes (153 billion gigabytes) of tape libraries in 2023, driven largely by the data storage needs of the artificial intelligence boom.
• Critics suggest Doge's decision to migrate data may be premature, as tape remains the most cost-effective solution for long-term data retention and is not the outdated legacy system the cost-cutting outfit implies.