Interview
Modi behaviour: will India retaliate against Pakistan?
The EconomistNarendra Modi, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Jeremy Page, Kerry and Richmond Jones, Daniel Knowles
- India may undertake immediate military strikes on targets within Pakistan-controlled Kashmir to avoid triggering a larger conflagration, with an Indian response considered very likely within days or weeks.
- A significant military escalation between India and Pakistan is anticipated as Pakistan is almost certain to retaliate, creating a higher risk of fresh conflagration than in 2019 due to diminished American influence in restraining both sides.
- India plans to isolate Pakistan internationally and apply economic pressure through strengthened relationships, particularly with the United States, while stepping up covert actions regarding militant leaders.
- Key bilateral agreements face destabilization risks: the 1960 water-sharing treaty may unravel following India's suspension, and the 1972 border agreement could be withdrawn by Pakistan, potentially delaying resolution compared to 2019 outcomes.
- In Brazil, federal tax breaks for churches issued between 1992 and 2018 are associated with a 33% increase in the number of open churches and an 8% rise in votes for evangelical politicians, driven by lower taxes increasing preachers' profit incentives.
- Research indicates that increased religious education in highly religious societies does not necessarily correlate with higher support for religious candidates, while witnessing a miracle may reduce church attendance compared to rational counterparts.
- Poverty levels correlate with feelings of religiosity, where those most poor feel more religious than individuals receiving significant charitable help from a church.
- The Department of Government Efficiency may be misidentifying strategic priorities by targeting magnetic tape storage, as a boom in this sector is occurring due to artificial intelligence demands and federal needs for vast, long-term data storage.