Interview, Podcast
Must Read Research: Debt, Defensives, Energy and the AI Buildout
- Higher Treasury yields relative to the Congressional Budget Office's February baseline are projected to add approximately $4 trillion in interest expense over the next decade, with every 100 basis point of Federal Reserve hikes estimated to increase the annual interest bill by $95 billion.
- The potential reduction in long-term Treasury issuance at the November refunding may provide support at the long end of the curve.
- While equity derivative strategies suggest the rotation from technology to defensive stocks may be excessive, the recent AI sell-off is viewed as a positioning-driven setback rather than a breakdown of the long-term AI theme.
- Rising natural gas prices are expected to restore coal as Europe's cheapest fuel, driving higher emissions and increased demand for carbon allowances that could tighten the correlation between natural gas and carbon prices.
- Road emissions may decline by 5% this year despite historical trends, while electric vehicle sales in Japan and India are forecast to grow by over 120% year-over-year in June.
- In China, electric truck sales increased 80% in the first quarter, outpacing growth in passenger vehicles.
- Total data center spending is projected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2028, doubling the forecast made the previous year, driven by AI-focused developers gaining capacity and the adoption of higher voltage power systems.
- Like-for-like infrastructure costs have risen 10-15% due to increased design complexity, prompting a shift in assembly from construction sites to factories to mitigate labor shortages.
- Liquid-cooled chips are increasingly being equipped with dedicated cooling loops, and NVIDIA's integration of the data center infrastructure stack has facilitated over $40 billion in mergers and acquisitions since 2024.