Bank of America
Showing 1–15 of 94 transcripts.
- 22 min
Must Read Research: AI + Quantum: The Ultimate Power Couple?
Haim Israel, Vivek Arya, Candace Browning
During an October 2026 Bank of America research call, analysts Haim Israel and Vivek Arya detailed the quantum industry's transition from theoretical feasibility to commercial scaling, marked by a recent $1 billion in sales and a market forecast reaching $80 billion by 2035. The discussion highlighted a critical acceleration in risk timelines, as the U.S. government moved its "Q-Day" projection to 2030 due to breakthroughs like Google's "Winnow" chip and the discovery that "dirty" qubits can solve complex tasks, posing immediate threats to RSA encryption and blockchain security. With major players like IonQ leading trapped-ion manufacturing and strategic partnerships involving NVIDIA and Microsoft driving hybrid workflows, the sector is rapidly evolving into a specialized accelerator for AI and high-precision sensing across finance, defense, and healthcare.
- 28 min
Post NFP Takeaways: Econ, Rates, FX
Mark Cabana, Megan Swiber, Alex Cohen
The September employment report revealed a 46,000 rise in private jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate alongside sharp deceleration in wage growth, leading market strategists to characterize the labor market as stable but non-inflationary. Despite softer headline data, the Federal Reserve team maintains its October rate hike outlook, warning that failure to tighten now could compromise inflation credibility or necessitate more aggressive measures later. Consequently, bond markets initially rallied before reversing on the expectation of a slower hiking cadence, while the dollar softened modestly against G10 currencies ahead of the pivotal September 14th CPI release.
- 19 min
There’s space for traditional wireless too; LEO can coexist with terrestrial networks
Michael Funk, TJ Thornton, Mike Funk
BofA analyst Mike Funk identifies significant technical and economic barriers preventing Low Earth Orbit satellites from competing in dense urban markets, noting that deploying femtocells in cities like New York would incur prohibitive costs while terrestrial networks already cover most of the United States. Despite these constraints, Starlink poses a strategic threat to rural-focused cable and telecom providers, with T-Mobile emerging as the most viable partner due to its limited rural infrastructure compared to the aggressive fiber strategies of AT&T and Verizon. Future growth in this sector is projected to rely on V3 satellite launches and specialized applications like autonomous vehicles rather than immediate substitution for consumer mobile services.
- 8 min
Signals & Noise: Earnings Over Elections
BofA Global Research strategist Savita Subramanian projects the S&P 500 to reach 7,400 by year-end and 7,800 within twelve months, citing earnings growth outpacing price returns despite inflation risks. The analysis upgrades long-term bonds as an attractive entry point while maintaining an equity bias driven by AI-driven productivity gains and a strategic shift toward large-cap value leaders. Furthermore, Subramanian views midterm political gridlock as a neutral market factor and identifies a late 2027 catalyst where cloud sales are expected to surpass AI spending.
- 24 min
Novel now, big scale shortly; AV speed reinforced by Bay Area trip
Martyn Briggs, Alex Perry, TJ Thornton
On September 16, 2026, industry observers analyzed the rapid commercial scaling of autonomous driving during a Bay Area field trip involving 15 corporations, including Waymo and Tesla. The event highlighted a strategic pivot from technical validation to mass operations, noting that global robotaxi fleets are projected to reach 7,000 to 10,000 units by late 2025 while transitioning from rule-based systems to AI-native architectures that drive down costs to $0.30 per mile. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that execution in manufacturing and safety validation will determine market winners, with autonomous trucking and physical AI applications expanding beyond dense urban centers to reshape global logistics and vehicle ownership models.
- 18 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Rates and inflation
Ralf Preusser, Mark Capleton, Evelyn Herrmann, Stephen Juneau, Meghan Swiber, Evelyn Hammond, Stephen Juno, Peggy Zweiber
BIA Global Research forecasts Eurozone headline inflation to rise to 3.9% in September while projecting a moderate December rate hike by the ECB, contingent on energy prices remaining elevated. In the United States, the firm anticipates a methodological revision will lower the PCE rate, yet underlying inflation remains persistently 50 basis points above the Fed's target, sustaining a high probability for an October rate increase. To capitalize on these divergent outlooks, BIA advocates for a long position in forward-starting real-yield curve flatteners and long-dated 10-year to 20-year inflation swaps due to perceived market over-optimism regarding future inflation containment.
- 24 min
Consumers resilient but many retail stocks are on the sale rack
Aditya Bhave, Chris Nardone, TJ Thornton
Aditya Bhave and Chris Nardone analyze a convergence in consumer spending across income tiers driven by labor market tightness, while Walmart and other retailers face margin compression as tariff refunds expire and high energy costs persist. Although the risk of a consumer recession remains low, analysts project three Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 to curb inflationary pressures that stem from de-globalization and supply chain disruptions. The outlook highlights a bifurcation in the retail sector where warehouse clubs maintain resilience against these headwinds, whereas hardline discretionary retailers face significant vulnerability as they navigate the transition to a post-refund operating environment.
- 20 min
Global Rates & FX Views: The great central bank review
Ralf Preusser, Agne Stengeryte, Meghan Swiber, Tomonobu Yamashita, Daesh Simha, Agnes Tengaraita, Yamashita-san
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% amid political pressure from Prime Minister Takaichi's appointees, while simultaneously adjusting climate-related fund operations to facilitate balance sheet normalization. Global central bank strategies diverged as the Federal Reserve signaled rates remain non-restrictive pending market signals, whereas the Bank of England paused active gilt sales to stabilize the long end of the curve. These actions triggered distinct market reactions, including a steeper JGB curve twist, a significant USD/JPY sell-off driven by FX policy concerns, and a mixed but structurally positive medium-term outlook for the British pound.
- 11 min
Signals & Noise: When Income Became an Outcome
Driven by demographic shifts toward income generation and elevated volatility regimes, global retail issuance of equity-linked structured products and income-focused ETFs has surged, reaching $320 billion annually with five-year growth rates outpacing the broader market. Regulatory innovations and digital brokerages have further accelerated this adoption as retail participants capitalize on higher option premiums to supplement traditional bond yields. Despite these gains, the event highlights inherent capital preservation and tail risks, urging investors to employ multi-asset strategies while anticipating continued expansion fueled by persistent market uncertainty.
- 6 min
Must Read Research: Walmart & Ads; Quantum, Computing Power Trading; Lodging Demand
Walmart's advertising segment has grown to $6.4 billion in fiscal 2026 with 70% operating margins, leveraging 150 million weekly customers to outpace traditional media through strategic partnerships. Parallel to this commercial expansion, the technology sector is accelerating quantum computing applications while transforming compute into a tradable asset class, evidenced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's planned launch of GPU rental futures. Meanwhile, hospitality executives report a robust C-shaped recovery driven by improved travel demand, as media developers increasingly prioritize labor costs over equipment expenses in their infrastructure planning.
- 6 min
Signals & Noise: Four Themes Driving Emerging Markets
David Hauner of BofA Securities outlines a constructive outlook for emerging market carry trades in September 2026, driven by high global rates and a range-bound dollar despite risks from rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. The strategy favors high-yield assets in Brazil, Turkey, and frontier markets while avoiding sovereign credit spreads, viewing Treasury buybacks and a potential three-rate hike cycle as catalysts for dollar weakness that support EM currencies. Key catalysts include the US midterms delaying a September rate decision, a constructive Trump-Xi summit aiding the offshore Renminbi, and Brazil's upcoming elections, though persistent inflation remains a primary constraint on fixed income returns.
- 10 min
Signals & Noise: AI Exposure, Less Volatility? Enter Converts
The global convertible bond market has surged to $600 billion, driven by $175 billion in year-to-date issuance as artificial intelligence companies transition from adjacent players to primary financing engines. Despite a July 2026 correction that reduced valuations to their most attractive levels of the year, the asset class outperformed equities on risk-adjusted bases by limiting drawdowns to 11% while capturing 80% of AI theme correlation. This performance, supported by a shift toward investment-grade issuers and over $2 billion in recent retail inflows, signals strong institutional confidence in convertibles as a strategic vehicle for AI capital formation.
- 29 min
Global Rates & FX Views: CPI, Fed, & buyback implications
Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Stephen Juneau, Meghan Swiber, Ralph Axel
Core CPI inflation surprised higher at 0.3% month-over-month, driven largely by volatile wireless and airfare costs that have pushed core PCE projections to 3.1%–3.2%. This data reinforces a market consensus that underlying inflation remains "stuck" above the 2% target, leading to an over 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Consequently, strategists anticipate a hawkish press conference from Chair Powell and a flattening yield curve as investors align expectations with a likely three-hike trajectory for the remainder of the year.
- 24 min
Global Rates & FX Views: NFP: what it means for US rates & USD
Sphia Salim, Shruti Mishra, Meghan Swiber, Alex Cohen, Zviya Salim
The August U.S. non-farm payrolls report revealed a resilient labor market with 60,000 net job additions and stabilized wage growth, driven by rebounds in leisure, government, and construction sectors that offset previous volatility. This data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, particularly if August Core PCE inflation remains above 0.24%, leading to a repricing of monetary policy toward 50 basis points of increases by early 2025. Consequently, two-year Treasury yields rose 3 basis points as investors adjusted for hawkish Fed messaging, while the dollar initially appreciated before retreating on oil price declines and the market's anticipation of upcoming CPI figures.
- 18 min
Shaky ‘26 for alt asset manager stocks, but steady asset inflows
TJ Thornton, Craig Siegenthaler
Following a decade of outperformance, alternative asset manager stocks face 2025–2026 headwinds from private credit concerns and AI-driven market disruption, yet have rebounded recently as valuations hit historical discounts and short positions unwind. Industry analysis identifies private credit fears as largely manufactured with returns forecast at 6%, while projecting that superior managers will capture future capital flows amid an expected bifurcation in performance. Despite private equity maturing, the sector retains defensive "never-for-seller" characteristics and significant long-term upside driven by retail adoption, operating leverage, and a future bear market that is projected to generate massive alpha through negative covariance with public equities.