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Must Read Research: Fund Manager Survey; Our New AI Tracker; Gold’s Rally and K-shape Convergence
- Optimism around risk assets is projected to persist, with fund managers advised to rotate within these assets rather than abandon them.
- 56% of fund managers anticipate a "no landing" economic scenario, while 4% foresee a "hard landing."
- 37% of fund managers expect double-digit earnings growth, coinciding with 71% expecting no reduction in AI spending during 2026 and 58% anticipating no negative impact on employment before 2028.
- Rapidly evolving AI economics and upcoming model launches from Meta and Alphabet are identified as key areas to monitor.
- Current investor buying trends in commodities align with a gold price of $4,000, with a move toward $5,000 requiring accelerated purchases and potential support from a more accommodative policy tone at Jackson Hole.
- China's gold imports are expected to continue reaching new highs as the country pursues the internationalization of the renminbi.
- The K-shaped consumer trend is beginning to converge, and savings are projected to remain above inflation-adjusted 2019 levels without signs of accelerated drawdowns.