Interview, Fireside Chat
Must Read Research: High Bar for 2Q; Netflix; Heatwaves and Corn; US TSY Softening Demand
- S&P 500 EPS is projected to grow 28% year-on-year in Q2 following 27% growth in Q1, with Q2 earnings expected to exceed consensus by 5%.
- Technology is forecast to account for over half of total earnings growth, driven by semiconductors anticipated to grow more than 130%.
- Year-over-year earnings growth is predicted across 10 of 11 sectors, including 121% in energy and 30% in materials.
- Revenue generation from advertising, live events, and password sharing initiatives is considered to be in the early stages for the Netflix platform.
- Global agriculture markets may be underpricing a structural weather risk premium, with crop losses in France and Hungary potentially reducing EU corn production by approximately 10% year-on-year.
- The production decline in France and Hungary is expected to drive record corn imports of 25 million tons.
- Upside price risks are identified for phosphates and potash due to elevated prices and the potential for additional disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Foreign participation in U.S. Treasury auctions has declined to below 20% from nearly 25%, indicating ongoing demand pressure.
- A potential shift in Japanese public pension holdings toward domestic assets could further reduce future demand for Treasuries.
- Declining foreign official custodial holdings are expected to spur discussions regarding future demand sources and potential diversification of reserve holdings.