Nato 3.0: Will America defend Europe against Russia? | The Economist

NATO Posture Review Context

• The current alliance phase is described as "NATO 3.0," characterized by a rebalancing where European members are expected to increase contributions.
• A US "posture review" is currently underway to clarify American intentions regarding force levels in Europe for potential conflict scenarios in 2028–2029.
• Secretary Hegseth initiated the review to specifically address the clarity of US force projections and reliability.

Strategic Roles of US Forces in Europe

• Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Alex Grinkovich defines three primary roles for US forces in Europe:
  • Supporting US national security interests on the continent.
  • Direct support to NATO operations.
  • Enabling US force projection into global theaters outside Europe.
• The US views Europe as a critical theater for its overall security, with some framing it as defending the "eastern flank of the eastern coast of America."

Personnel and Command Changes

• General Nick Perry is set to take over as the first UK commander of Joint Forces Command Norfolk.
• His command responsibility covers the North Atlantic and Northern Europe, directly contributing to US security architecture.
• This leadership transition signals a shift in the UK's role within the North Atlantic security framework.

Historical and Contemporary US Strategic Shifts

• The current rebalancing aligns with the Obama administration's "tilt" toward the Indo-Pacific, a strategic shift ongoing for over a decade.
• Disagreements over burden-sharing and the relative contributions of Europe vs. the US date back at least 15 years, involving figures like Bob Gates.
• US global integration faces real challenges in balancing European commitments with broader strategic priorities.

Basing and Access Rights

• A key contentious element of the posture review involves US basing rights, overflight permissions, and access to European soil.
• Historical friction over access occurred during the Iran conflict, where European hesitation initially delayed the use of facilities like RAF Fairford until the UK agreed to US access.
• Recent negotiations between the US and Denmark regarding Greenland highlight the sensitivity of granting "unfettered and free access" to US operations.
• Secretary of War stated that the precedents regarding access remain the same as those established in the late 1940s, despite current friction.
• US demands for open access contrast with the responsibilities European nation-states hold under international law to judge such deployments.

Nuclear Deterrence and Alliances

• The US continues to provide reassurance regarding its commitment to the NATO nuclear umbrella, both privately and publicly.
• France is advancing a policy of "extended nuclear deterrence," recently discussed with other European nations including Finland, to provide a French nuclear umbrella.
• UK and French nuclear activities aim to signal a unified European deterrent effort alongside the US.
• The strategic goal is to ensure Russia understands that the UK, US, and France will act collectively if attacked by a nuclear-armed state.
• Details regarding the specific mechanics of the French extended deterrence model are still being evolved.