Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation, Interview
Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina Talks Big Data at the Milken Institute's 2013 Global Conference
- Campaigns must fundamentally reinvent their approach because the political landscape has changed, rendering methods from previous elections insufficient for future success.
- Data-driven strategies are established as a long-term competitive necessity rather than a temporary advantage, with predictive models built over a four-year lead time (2008–2012) enabling precise nightly outcome simulations involving 62,000 computer runs.
- Republicans are predicted to catch up to the data capabilities demonstrated in 2012 over a three-to-four year period, while the broader industry is expected to adopt sophisticated data modeling broadly.
- The 2016 presidential class must adapt to these changes to remain competitive, though candidates are expected to have an easier job due to a "head start" similar to that provided to the 2008 Bush campaign.
- Historical data from the 2012 cycle indicates the strategy secured a majority of undecided voters for the first time since Richard Nixon and achieved high precision in engagement, with expectations of six million website logins during the final six days of a campaign.
- Specific performance metrics include an expected 78% conversion rate for individuals receiving personalized social media prompts.
- Future utilization of data for various advocacy purposes by campaigns and other organizations is anticipated, subject to resolving legal contribution limits.
- The industry is currently struggling to identify the proper vehicle for data distribution, and organizations failing to employ similar testing and data methodologies are considered behind the curve in the modern digital reality.