Ode to dread: Europe after Trump

US-Europe Security & Defence Investment

• European leaders held a "charm offensive" in Washington, but significant anxiety remains regarding the longevity of the American security umbrella, with Germany's presumptive leader Friedrich Merz describing the situation as "five to midnight."
• Defence Editor Shashank Joshi notes that a proposed European deployment to Ukraine would stretch existing forces "incredibly thin," as most European armies cannot even generate a single combat-capable brigade (approx. 3,000–5,000 personnel).
• There are roughly 250 brigades currently active in Ukraine; European forces lack the capacity to field additional units without creating dangerous gaps in NATO's own continental defenses.
• Any European military engagement in Ukraine would require "exceptionally high" dependency on American "enablers" (intelligence, airlift, logistics, command and control) rather than just ground troops.
• Current European defence spending levels are insufficient; credible war plans suggest Europe needs to spend above 3% of GDP, or 3.7% to account for potential US pivot to Asia, compared to the UK's planned 2.5% by 2027.
• In a scenario of complete American withdrawal, defence spending would need to rise to 4–6% of GDP to compensate for the loss of US capabilities.
• Structural recruitment failures persist; for example, the Dutch armed forces are currently understrength by roughly 20% (1 in 10 positions empty) and recruitment yields fall short of targets (3,600 enlisted vs. 5,000 needed).
• European capabilities in specific "enabler" categories remain critically weak, particularly regarding munitions capable of countering Russian air defenses and the command infrastructure to orchestrate complex air operations.
• Nuclear security concerns are escalating; incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has suggested Germany must discuss nuclear sharing with the UK and France if the US nuclear shield becomes unreliable.
• British and French nuclear arsenals are too small to fully replace the US deterrent, and the UK's Trident system relies on shared US missile pools, complicating a European-only nuclear solution.

French Withdrawal from Africa

• By the end of 2025, France will maintain only one permanent military base in Africa, located in Djibouti, ending a decade-long counter-terrorism operation spanning five Sahelian countries.
• French President Emmanuel Macron criticized the "ingratitude" of the Sahel region following his withdrawal, a remark that drew significant criticism.
• The departure of French forces from Mali (2022) triggered a "regional domino effect," with Burkina Faso and Niger also expelling French troops and inviting the Russian Wagner Group to replace them.
• Chad, Ivory Coast, and Senegal have also seen French withdrawals or imminent departures, signaling the end of the "France-Afrique" model of neo-colonial military ties.
• The three expelling nations (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) have formed the "Alliance of Sahel States," a security pact claiming to restore sovereignty and permit a "full-bore militaristic approach" without external oversight.
• Security outcomes have deteriorated following the French exit; insecurity has grown exponentially, with ISIS entrenched in northern Mali and two-thirds of Burkina Faso currently outside national army control.
• Human rights conditions have worsened under Wagner/mercenaries, who are accused of inflicting higher levels of civilian targeting, torture, and public executions compared to French or UN forces.
• Despite the security vacuum, some junta leaders are showing tentative signs of opening negotiations with jihadist leaders, potentially moving away from previous French-imposed peace accords.

India's Maha Kumbh Mela

• The Maha Kumbh Mela took place in Prayagraj this year, attracting an estimated 700 million pilgrims, surpassing the government's prediction of 400 million.
• The festival, occurring every 12 years to mark planetary alignment, was traditionally viewed as a gathering for poorer demographics but saw unprecedented elite participation (actors, business titans, politicians) utilizing luxury tents and helicopters.
• Two primary drivers explain the event's elite appeal: economic growth enabling travel via special flights and private cars, and the social media-driven "aspirational" branding of Hinduism.
• The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leveraged the event to position Hinduism as a symbol of patriotism and progress, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath featured prominently in campaign imagery.
• Survey data indicates a shift in national identity perception; a 2021 Pew Research survey found nearly two-thirds of Hindus believe being "truly Indian" means being Hindu.
• A fatal stampede occurred on January 29, with official reports citing 30 deaths while other sources suggest a higher toll; critics allege security cordons prioritizing elite viewing areas contributed to the tragedy.
• Despite the deaths, the BJP is framing the event as a major political triumph and a success of its "Hindu nationalist" agenda.