Other
Ode to dread: Europe after Trump
- European allies anticipate a multi-year horizon before achieving self-sufficiency in defense without external reliance.
- Generating a single combat-capable brigade of 3,000 to 5,000 personnel would stretch European forces, which contrasts with the approximately 250 brigades per side currently active in Ukraine.
- Deploying thin European forces to Ukraine would expose gaps in NATO's domestic defenses that would be difficult to backfill due to struggles in regenerating forces.
- Any European deployment in Ukraine is projected to require exceptional American support described as "enablers" to make operations viable.
- Credibility within NATO war plans is expected to require defense spending above 3% of GDP, potentially reaching 3.7%, while a complete US withdrawal could necessitate spending of 4% to 6% of GDP.
- Recruitment shortages and understrength ranks, exemplified by Dutch forces being less than one-fifth of their Cold War size, are expected to hinder the development of an army twice its current size.
- Acquiring key capabilities such as munitions, command and control, intelligence, airlift, and logistics is expected to face significant hurdles within a six-month timeframe.
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to negotiate compensation for the potential loss of the US nuclear shield with Britain and France this year.
- Persistent urgency regarding structural investments to reduce dependency on the US for future conflicts is expected to drive policy discussions.
- By the end of 2025, France's only permanent military base in Africa is expected to be limited to Djibouti, following withdrawals from Ivory Coast, Chad, and Senegal.
- In the medium-to-longer term, junta leaders may shift from brute force to regional negotiations, potentially driven by signs of engagement with jihadist leaders.
- The alliance between military regimes and Russian mercenaries is expected to continue causing civilian suffering in the region for the foreseeable future.
- A 2021 survey indicated that nearly two-thirds of Hindus believe that being truly Indian requires being Hindu.
- Officials initially predicted 400 million attendees for the Mahakumbh Mela, but current claims state nearly 700 million have attended, representing roughly half of India's population.
- The BJP is expected to frame the festival as a major triumph and declare success despite the stampede tragedy.