Out on a ledger: Trump convicted

Donald Trump Criminal Conviction

• A New York jury convicted former President Donald Trump on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, marking the first time a U.S. former president has been criminally convicted.
• The charges stem from a 2016 scheme where Trump reimbursed lawyer Michael Cohen $130,000 for a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels, which prosecutors argued was a campaign finance violation disguised as legal fees.
• Trump reacted immediately by labeling the trial "rigged" and a "disgraceful" political witch hunt orchestrated by the Biden administration, while maintaining his innocence.
• Sentencing is scheduled for July 11, with legal experts noting that prison time is unlikely given the low-level nature of the felonies and the expectation of years of appeals.
• Despite the historic verdict, early analysis suggests the political damage may be limited; Trump's poll numbers reportedly rose following his 2023 indictment, and he is already utilizing the conviction in fundraising as a "political prisoner" narrative.
• If Trump wins the November election, he could leverage the Justice Department to drop the two active federal cases against him, while the Georgia state case is also expected to stall during his presidency.

South African General Election Results

• Early results indicate the African National Congress (ANC) is on track to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994.
• The ANC's vote share is projected to fall to approximately 42%, a significant decline from the 57.5% achieved in the 2019 election.
• Former President Jacob Zuma's newly formed party, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK), has emerged as the third-largest party in an unexpected surge.
• The ANC is now forced to form a coalition government, facing a strategic choice between two distinct paths:
  • Pragmatism: Partnering with the liberal centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), which holds roughly 22% of the vote, potentially resulting in more competent governance and stable markets.
  • Populism: Partnering with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or MK, both hard-left parties, which could alienate investors but unify the ruling party's base.
• Current President Cyril Ramaphosa faces significant internal pressure and a potentially career-ending political situation as he negotiates the end of ANC hegemony.
• The final outcome of coalition negotiations depends on the precise final vote counts and internal factional dynamics within the ANC.

Personnel Changes at The Economist

• Host Auret van der Merwe announced she is departing her role as an on-air host to become The Economist's Africa correspondent based in Lagos.
• Van der Merwe stated the move was a "dream role" allowing her to cover business, innovation, and culture across the continent, including immediate reporting on Lagos's housing and environmental crises.
• She will remain involved with "The Intelligence" podcast from her new location, contributing audio dispatches rather than conducting live questions.