Interview
Out on a ledger: Trump convicted
- The ANC is projected to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994, with early vote shares potentially dropping to 42% compared to 57.5% in 2019, necessitating a coalition government formed over the next fortnight.
- Future governance outcomes depend on the ANC's choice between a pragmatic coalition with the Democratic Alliance, which may yield sensible policies, or a populist alliance with the MK Party or Economic Freedom Fighters, which could destabilize markets.
- President Cyril Ramaphosa faces diminishing prospects for a manageable coalition, with high risks of career termination due to factional battles or poor results, alongside expectations that he will not stand for re-election as ANC president after 2029.
- Donald Trump has been convicted on 34 felony counts in New York, a ruling likely to be the only one finalized before the November election, though he is unlikely to serve immediate prison time as sentences would be delayed by an appeals process taking years.
- Legal challenges to Trump's conviction are expected to focus on the complexity of elevating charges to felonies, with potential for reversal; a November victory would allow him to dismiss two federal cases and likely halt the Georgia case during his presidency.
- The impact of the conviction on independent voters is predicted to be limited given the long public history of the case, which previously correlated with rising poll numbers, and Trump's conviction represents his only near-term legal accountability.
- Auret van der Merwe is relocating to Lagos to report on business, society, and culture, with an upcoming dispatch covering the city's critical housing and environmental erosion crises driven by its low-lying, sinking geography.