Panel, Conference Presentation, Webinar
Predicting Pandemics: Mobilizing an Active Global Surveillance System
- The pandemic's duration remains unknown, necessitating a comprehensive global surveillance system to proactively detect novel pathogens, emerging antimicrobial resistance, and bioterrorist attacks, as no such system currently exists in 2020 or any other country.
- While biological and scientific information flows faster than during the 2003 SARS or 2009 swine flu outbreaks, the United States response has been criticized for being slow, lacking massive testing capabilities, and lagging in case identification, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine compared to nations like South Korea.
- A global network is proposed to replace reliance on serendipitous discovery, with specific examples including Australia's rollout and the African Pathogen Genomics Initiative, which commits $100 million over four years involving 20 countries to establish genomic surveillance capacity.
- African capacity building has seen progress, with over 40 countries equipped for pathogen testing by the end of March, 800 laboratories operating on the continent, and Illumina donating sequencers to 10 nations, though local diagnostic and sequencing development remains a priority.
- Future surveillance frameworks aim to integrate diverse data streams including sewage and blood bank monitoring, community-level engagement, local media, Google search trends, OTC medication sales, and a "One Health" approach linking animal and human health.
- Implementation requires public-private partnerships involving philanthropies, CDCs, commercial entities, and defense departments to secure sustainable funding, while facing challenges from unprecedented political pressures on the FDA and CDC and the destabilizing effects of withdrawing support from the WHO.
- Advanced technologies such as mRNA synthetic vaccines and therapies are available, supported by open-source tools like GISAID which host tens of thousands of viral genome entries, enabling scientist-to-scientist collaboration despite geopolitical tensions.
- Material expectations include a sustained political commitment to treat infectious diseases with the same severity as military or nuclear threats, with potential for follow-up discussions on these systemic changes a year from now if plans are enacted.