Putin's hidden war: the Russians fighting back

Escalation of State Repression: Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin intensified measures to silence dissent, transitioning the regime from authoritarianism to what journalist Roman Dobrohorodov describes as "complete tyranny."

• Legal Crackdown: New laws criminalized calling the conflict a "war," restricting the terminology to "special military operation," with violations punishable by prison sentences.
• Media Purge: Within the first year, 250 media channels were blocked, 500 journalists fled the country, and numerous media outlets lost staff in protest.
• Targeting Dissent: Police arrested approximately 15,000 individuals across 155 cities in the first month of the war, including photojournalists documenting rallies.

Pre-War Consolidation of Power: The crackdown on internal opposition began years before the 2022 invasion, with Vladimir Putin preparing to wage war on two fronts: externally in Ukraine and internally against the Russian political landscape.

• Strategic Purge: The regime systematically purged Russian politics and information space of dissenting voices starting with the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
• Neutralization of Leadership: Opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned and imprisoned prior to the invasion, removing a central figure from the resistance; investigations by outlets like The Insider were targeted, forcing journalists like Dobrohorodov to flee after FSB raids.

Evolution of Protest Tactics: As mass street protests were suppressed within two weeks of the invasion, resistance tactics shifted toward individual actions and exile.

• Individual Resistance: Activists adopted "one-man pickets" and small-scale acts of defiance, such as altering supermarket price tags with anti-war slogans, to assert agency and reject state complicity.
• Exile and Digital Resistance: Exiled journalists and groups like Pussy Riot (e.g., Maria Alyokhina) operate from abroad, where they claim a larger, more trusting audience compared to the censored domestic sphere.
• Risk Assessment: Activists remaining in Russia utilize safety protocols such as sharing live location markers with editors to document potential detention.

Mobilization and Demographic Exodus: A partial military mobilization decree announced by Putin triggered a significant societal reaction and mass migration.

• Internal Unrest: The mobilization sparked violent protests, including arson at conscription offices, before being quelled by security forces.
• Flight Statistics: Over 750,000 Russians fled the country in the month following the mobilization announcement.
• Strategic Demographics: Analysts argue Putin's strategy exploited the open borders to allow skilled, resourceful citizens to leave while conscripting those with fewer options to flee.

Casualties and Information Warfare: Official and unofficial estimates regarding Russian losses diverge significantly, creating a dangerous environment for truth-telling.

• Conflicting Figures: The Russian government reported fewer than 6,000 deaths initially, whereas unofficial estimates place the death toll closer to 100,000.
• Documentation Efforts: Activist Marina Litvinovich has begun cataloging the names of the dead and monitoring graveyards, acknowledging that such data collection is now strictly prohibited.
• Psychological Toll: The documentation of mobilized men dying has created an "existential nightmare" for those witnessing the physical reality of the war.

Future Outlook and Regime Stability: The narrative regarding the war's trajectory remains pivotal to the potential for political change within Russia.

• Turning Point Prediction: Litvinovich and other activists argue that the regime will likely only fall when the public perception shifts due to battlefield losses rather than domestic protests.
• Current Legitimacy: Despite the conscription of poorly trained troops, the regime retains legitimacy among a large portion of the population, as citizens continue to comply with orders to "fight and die."
• Long-term Hope: Resistance groups anticipate a future return to a "normal state," believing their current documentation of the catastrophe will be vindicated by history regardless of the political climate.