Other
Putin's hidden war: the Russians fighting back
- The Russian regime is expected to transition from authoritarianism to complete tyranny due to new laws, with state repression predicted to be significantly worse than anticipated a decade prior.
- The war's conclusion is viewed as unlikely without violence returning to Russian soil, with the conflict against internal resistance reportedly beginning around 2014 and intensifying through purges of dissenting voices like the poisoning of Alexei Navalny.
- More than 500 journalists are predicted to leave Russia by the end of the year following media closures, while exiled reporters are expected to wield far more influence in undermining the Kremlin than those remaining inside where reporting is nearly impossible.
- Following the partial military mobilization decree, ordinary men are expected to be conscripted starting in September, triggering family separations, violent protests such as the burning of conscription offices, and an expected exodus of over 750,000 people within the following month.
- Unofficial estimates suggest Russian military fatalities may approach 100,000, significantly exceeding the official government figure of just under 6,000, a disparity that drives activists like Marina Litvinovich to maintain prohibited databases of the dead despite the personal toll.
- While the exodus of resourceful citizens is expected to aid the regime by leaving behind those with no choice but to fight, individual acts of rebellion are predicted to gain power by demonstrating that the war lacks popular support.
- Political change is expected to remain distant for Russia-based journalists but may occur rapidly if the population perceives a direct link between military losses in Ukraine and regime failure, potentially ending the regime entirely.
- The regime is predicted to retain legitimacy among a large portion of the population despite expectations that mobilization would erode support, with the situation expected to shift from uncertainty to a definitive fall eventually.