Conference Presentation, Panel
Ready Player All? Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Realities
Milken InstituteCharles Melcher, Nonny de la Peña, Colin Decker, Molly DeWolf Swenson, Brian Seth Hurst, Jake Zim
- Global investment in the AR and VR sectors is projected to exceed $200 billion by 2021, though current headset adoption rates are experiencing delays.
- Hardware evolution is predicted to move from bulky, expensive early devices costing around $1,000 with expensive computer leases toward standalone headsets, lightweight glasses, and tiny low-energy devices, with 5G networks anticipated to be available next spring to support high-density, cord-free streaming.
- Apple is expected to announce a headset to coincide with the 5G rollout, while consumer usage patterns are forecast to shift from 24-7 exposure to compartmentalized adoption based on specific habits and contexts.
- Immersive media is positioned to surpass the internet's transformative potential by enabling "re-embodiment," allowing users to interact through natural gestures and voice within a three-dimensional world rather than two-dimensional screens.
- Market maturity is expected to transition from a nascent experimental phase to a model with clear economic frameworks, where content creation yields ROI, take rates are established, and the industry overcomes its current "trough of disappointment."
- Business applications for cinematic VR are anticipated to span pain management, nerve regeneration, and e-sports, with e-sports viewership predicted to rival the NFL by 2020 as participatory content becomes dominant.
- Sony Pictures Entertainment plans to leverage existing IP such as Spider-Man, Men in Black, and Jumanji to create immersive experiences and is developing A-Frame code for volumetric content distribution via web links.
- Immomatic has secured a contract with RMS to salvage the Titanic wreck and intends to shoot the first stop-motion animation in VR there next April while developing an anthology series on moral relativism.
- Premium location-based entertainment, such as free-roam VR experiences, is modeled after mini-theme parks with ticket prices reaching up to $30 per person, while broader commercial applications are expected to emerge in education, architecture, and real estate.
- The industry is currently developing a "native language" for the medium similar to early cinema, moving from passive consumption to active user participation and agency within stories.
- Risks include ethical responsibilities regarding storytelling in VR, potential delays in consumer adoption due to high costs and form factors, and the time required for the market to develop a distinct language similar to the 20 to 30 years required for traditional cinema.