Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat
Sam Wyly: 1,000 Dollars & an Idea
- The Milken Institute forum schedule includes a hiatus with no sessions in December, with the next forum occurring in January; Allen Tronson is set to speak on January 22 regarding stem cell research, followed by a private breakfast for Milken Institute Associates featuring Mac McLarty on January 23.
- A subsequent private breakfast meeting is scheduled for December 9 featuring Russ Stanton, while the 2009 Global Conference is planned for April 27–29 and is expected to sell out with attendance slightly reduced from the previous year.
- Sam Wiley predicts a deep economic recession similar to the 1973–1975 period, characterized by substantial equity losses, doubled interest rates, and gasoline shortages, with a forecast duration of no longer than 18 months.
- Wiley anticipates that the incoming Obama administration, Congress, and new President will extend the clean energy production tax credit, which was expiring the following month, for a period of 18 months.
- It is expected that the Obama administration could create 5 million new jobs through investments in clean energy and environmental cleanup.
- Wiley forecasts that a carbon tariff or tax implemented in the U.S. would prompt Europe and Japan to instantly adopt similar measures, which he believes would incentivize the cleanup of dirty coal plants.
- A carbon pricing mechanism starting at $20 per ton and increasing by $20 annually for 10 years is predicted to drive efficiency in cars, electricity generation, and other sectors.
- Wiley warns that $100 billion invested in tar sands projects may become unviable if oil prices drop to $50 or $60 per barrel, a price point that would also make clean energy more difficult to compete against compared to $100 oil prices.
- Oil prices today are noted to be cheaper on an inflation-adjusted basis than in 1980, when the price was $40 per barrel (equivalent to approximately $103 today), though a historical crash saw prices fall from $40 to $10 in the early 1980s causing alternative energy failures.
- Large automotive companies like General Motors are expected to be corrected by the competitive marketplace regardless of additional government intervention time.
- Chinese legislation is predicted to require high school diploma students to be fluent in English between 2015 and 2018, and China is identified as necessary for reducing carbon emissions to solve global climate change.
- Historical market data indicates the stock market hit 1,000 in the mid-1960s and did not cross that level again until 1983, while it took 15 years to recover from the 1970 crash and 25 years from the 1930s, with 1957 levels matching those of 1929.