Oct 4, 2023, 9:42 AM ETInterview

Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake

Grand strategy is defined as the integration of all relevant instruments of national power (diplomatic, economic, military, informational) to pursue national objectives.
Nations that fail to coordinate these instruments, such as Imperial Japan in WWII, face catastrophic outcomes compared to those that do, like the US and UK.
Dictatorial regimes often lack "grand strategy" due to the absence of counter-arguments and internal debate, leading them to "double down" on pivotal errors rather than retreat.
Successful democracies rely on institutionalized debate and the requirement to listen to opposing views, whereas dictators who ignore dissent are prone to overextension.

Hitler's Hubris: Hitler's military success (Blitzkrieg) led to overextension; he could have consolidated power by stopping after the annexation of Austria and Czechoslovakia but pursued genocidal expansion instead.
Stalin's Mortality: Millions of deaths under Stalin were not solely attributable to his personal agency but resulted from systemic cooperation where "millions of people pulling millions of triggers" participated in state violence.
Japanese Mobilization: Japan's military cohesion was rooted in a cultural framework of obligation and in-group loyalty rather than individual rights, leading to a refusal to surrender even when strategically futile.
The Pacific War: The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was a "pivotal error" that unified the Western powers; they underestimated the US as a "sleeping giant" and failed to anticipate the mobilization of American industrial capacity.
Soviet Resilience: The Soviet Union's ability to survive the invasion of Nazi Germany was driven by "death ground" dynamics and the brutal unification of Ukrainian and Russian national identity in response to Nazi atrocities.

Maritime Order: Since the Industrial Revolution, wealth generation in the West has shifted from territorial conquest (a pre-industrial, negative-sum game) to international trade, treaties, and rule-based commerce (a positive-sum game).
Continental Empire: Russia and China historically operate on a continental model where security is equated with territorial control, leading to internal inefficiency and wealth destruction.
Japan's Industrial Legacy: Despite atrocities, Japan's occupation of Manchuria, Korea, and Taiwan laid the groundwork for modern economic development through infrastructure, education, and bottom-up institutional control.
China's Model: The Chinese Communist Party maintains power through a monopoly on ideology, increasingly resorting to surveillance and nationalism as economic growth slows and the "moral rectitude" of prosperity fades.
Sanctions Impact: Economic sanctions function by suppressing growth rates over time; the compounding effect of low growth in authoritarian states (like North Korea) leads to long-term stagnation compared to open economies.

Putin's Strategy: Vladimir Putin has made a pivotal error in Ukraine by having no "back-down plan," leaving him with only a strategy of permanent escalation.
Ukraine Nation-Building: The Russian invasion has accelerated Ukrainian national identity formation, transforming a fragmented populace into a unified nation resisting foreign domination.
NATO Expansion: Eastern European nations joined NATO to escape historical Russian aggression; this was a defensive measure by states seeking security, not a provocation by the West.
Western Support: The US and Europe are providing aid to Ukraine rather than fighting directly, relying on the fact that locals (Ukrainians) are the primary combatants in their own defense.
Nuclear Risk: A direct war between the US and China carries a high-consequence, low-probability risk of nuclear escalation, which the US seeks to deter through diplomatic and military readiness.

Invasion Tactics: Any People's Republic of China (PRC) takeover of Taiwan would likely begin with an artillery barrage intended to level cities, similar to tactics observed in Ukraine.
Sovereignty Principle: The international maritime order is predicated on sovereignty; allowing a larger power to destroy a smaller one undermines the global system of international law.
US Strategic Ambiguity: The US maintains "strategic ambiguity" regarding Taiwan to prevent Taiwanese autonomy from triggering a war while retaining the ability to intervene if necessary.
CCP Survival: If the PRC fails to take Taiwan, it risks severe sanctions and exclusion from the global trade order, potentially threatening the Communist Party's monopoly on power.
Odds of Conflict: While the specific timeline (5, 10, or 20 years) is unknown, the consensus is that preparation for conflict is necessary for deterrence, even if war is not guaranteed.

Institutional Legacy: The success of post-WWII reconstruction in Germany and Japan was due to the pre-existence of functioning institutions (legal systems, education, infrastructure) that could be rebuilt, unlike in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Civilian Control: The US maintains robust civilian control of the military through a long evolutionary process, culminating in the firing of General MacArthur for insubordination.
Information Warfare: The US effectively counteracted Russian propaganda during the Ukraine war by releasing intelligence early and maintaining a "truth-telling" strategy, contrasting with the Soviet/Russian reliance on lies.
Leadership Failure: The "Miracle Generation" in post-war Japan and Germany successfully rebuilt their nations because they personally experienced the horrors of war and rejected the ideology of total conquest.
China's Information Asymmetry: Authoritarian regimes suffer from cascading lies within their systems (e.g., the Soviet Union's economic data), leading to catastrophic misallocations of resources and an inability to pivot during crises.

Tech and Regimes: Technology does not inherently favor democracies; the design of internet architectures and surveillance tools could privilege dictatorships if not carefully managed.
China's Belt and Road: China's infrastructure initiatives often include IT packages designed to maintain authoritarian control over recipient nations.
Asymmetric Warfare: The use of cheap drones and 3D printing in Ukraine is reshaping warfare, rendering expensive platforms like aircraft carriers more vulnerable to asymmetric threats.
Maritime Advantage: The US benefits from its "insulated" geographic position, allowing it to decide when to intervene in global conflicts, unlike continental powers that face immediate invasion threats.