Interview
Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake
- Russia is expected to pursue a "double down" strategy due to a lack of alternatives, potentially facing internal pressure from oligarchs or generals to change course, though this remains uncertain.
- The Russian economy is predicted to stagnate permanently, with standards of living falling below Mexico and sanctions creating a North Korea-like state due to compounding negative growth.
- Over half of Russia's economy is expected to remain devoted to its military-industrial complex, a level of spending described as unsustainable and horrific compared to historical norms.
- China is expected to maintain a "monopoly of political power" regardless of economic pressures, with any shift in political autonomy considered "off the table" as the regime relies increasingly on nationalism.
- A potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is presumed to commence with an "artillery barrage" causing city-level destruction similar to Ukraine, serving as a "pivotal error" from which the regime cannot recover.
- If China invades Taiwan, the global order is expected to impose an indefinite "timeout" via sanctions, removing China from the international trading system until conditions improve.
- A conflict between China and the United States involving nuclear weapons is predicted to be a catastrophic error with no winners, while the "nuclear war probability" could increase if the West fails to support Ukraine.
- The 24-7 surveillance state in China is expected to become increasingly costly and dangerous due to false positives in facial recognition and social credit scoring, potentially leading to instability or implosion.
- The continental power paradigm of Russia and China is expected to lead to "wealth-destroying" activities, whereas the maritime order will continue to generate compounding economic growth for participating nations.
- The maritime order is anticipated to remain the primary vehicle for prosperity, with nations rejecting it facing massive poverty and stagnation over time, while those adhering to it are rewarded.
- China's continental power strategy is predicted to prevent the development of a world-class navy or effective expeditionary warfare capabilities due to the need to maintain a large standing army for land borders.
- The military competence of the PLA is expected to be tested by Vietnam and India, with predictions suggesting their capabilities are inferior to peers like the US, particularly regarding expeditionary operations.
- Russia's economy and Ukraine's defense are expected to be shaped by the "searing lesson" of history, with Ukraine eventually becoming highly defensible to create an impregnable border protecting Europe.
- Information warfare is expected to continue favoring the West as it resumes active efforts to counter Russian propaganda, potentially using Cold War strategies to "bury Putin."
- The compounding effects of lies within totalitarian systems are expected to cause massive internal decision-making failures and potential implosions as leaders cannot access accurate data.
- Historical lessons from World War I, World War II, and the Great Depression are expected to eventually drive authoritarian regimes toward democratization or protectionism unless they understand global market interactions.
- Institutions built after World War II, such as the UN and NATO, are expected to continue holding the peace as long as nations adhere to the maritime order.
- Intelligence on adversarial systems is expected to remain unreliable due to internal deception and "lies," creating persistent "unknown unknowns" that hinder accurate geopolitical prediction.
- Tech sector architectures face a dilemma regarding whether they privilege dictatorships over democracies through tools like firewalls, while a similar surveillance system in the US is predicted to have incredible costs if adopted.
- The "National Disappearing Act" and surveillance costs in China are expected to become gruesome and unsustainable as the regime faces internal dissent and global scrutiny.
- Military-industrial spending in Russia is predicted to continue draining the economy, while the continental power model is expected to eventually force Russia and China to acknowledge they are inefficient for generating wealth.
- The "timeout" strategy used to contain continental empires is expected to persist until they adjust their behavior to the requirements of the maritime order.
- The prospect of "negative sum" games where territory is gained at the expense of wealth destruction is expected to characterize the continental power model, leading to its eventual failure.