Conference Presentation, Lecture, Interview
Sarah Paine – Maritime vs Continental Powers
- The speaker contrasts two distinct geopolitical worldviews:
- Continental model: Characterized by security through territorial control and a "negative-sum" approach where gaining territory (e.g., in Donbass or Crimea) destroys existing economic assets, businesses, and tourist industries.
- Maritime model: Originating with Britain and refined by the Dutch Republic and Hugo Grotius, this model prioritizes security through commerce, international law, and alliances; it operates as a "win-win" system where joining allows nations to buy navies, armies, and influence institutional evolution.
- The speaker argues that Putin's strategy is a pre-Industrial Revolution throwback relying on territorial conquest, whereas the post-18th century consensus favors "compounding wealth" through rules-based international institutions.
- A specific counterfactual is presented regarding the Ukraine conflict:
- Had Donald Trump been president at the time of the invasion, the speaker asserts Ukraine "would be no more" and Russian armies would currently extend to the Polish border.
- The speaker notes the strategic shift of former neutral nations Finland and Sweden, who now support an "impregnable border" around Ukraine to protect European insulation.
- Economic projections suggest Russia's potential was squandered by the current leadership:
- The speaker estimates Putin's military spending could have instead modernized Russia's "deplorable" road systems and established a robust legal framework to foster small business growth.
- Despite abundant energy resources and talent, the Russian oligarchy and Putin personally refuse to join the maritime order, fearing a loss of power compared to the wealth gains available through integration.
- Current containment strategy is framed as a temporary measure ("timeout"):
- The maritime order excludes nations that engage in territorial conquest on equal footing.
- The system remains open to reintegration if Russia undergoes a regime change or behavioral shift, mirroring the post-WWII rehabilitation of Germany and Japan.
- The speaker explicitly rejects the concept of US hegemony:
- No nation desires a global order where the US acts as a unilateral hegemon that "pushes everyone else around."
- The preferred model is a collaborative maritime order where the US is a significant but non-dominant partner within a web of international institutions.
- The speaker identifies the preservation of the post-WWII international legal framework as their primary career takeaway:
- Institutions like the UN and various treaties allow nations to sign selective agreements, influence evolution, and conduct global commerce without violence.
- The Biden administration's multilateral approach, involving broad European cooperation on Ukraine, exemplifies this win-win structure.
- The speaker concludes that the prosperity of the maritime order depends on protecting these institutions and allowing for the eventual return of isolated states, provided they adhere to the established rules of international law.