Conference Presentation, Lecture, Interview
Sarah Paine – Maritime vs Continental Powers
- Material risks to the current global stability include the potential loss of maritime order protection due to dictatorship or poor grand strategy, with the US having come "perilously close" to this outcome in recent years.
- Strategic predictions regarding Ukraine suggest that under a different US administration, Russian forces would currently occupy the Polish border, while Europeans recognize the necessity of establishing an "impregnable border around Ukraine" for collective security.
- The continental worldview prioritizing territorial conquest is characterized as "negative sum," destroying existing businesses and tourism industries in conquered zones like Donbass, a dynamic described as a "pre-industrial revolution" approach to security comparable to Hitler's expansion.
- Historical trends since the Industrial Revolution indicate a consensus that territorial conquest is wealth-destroying, whereas modern compounding wealth is achieved by nations adhering to international institutions, laws, and treaties.
- Financial expectations for Russia suggest that joining the maritime and rules-based order could generate significant revenue, though an oligarchic minority would likely see reduced personal gains compared to the status quo.
- Russia's current economic potential is projected to improve dramatically if military spending is redirected toward domestic infrastructure and a legal system that protects small businesses from extortion.
- Future geopolitical shifts anticipate that historically neutral nations like Finland and Sweden are moving toward actively opposing Russian aggression to maintain the security architecture.
- The strategy of containing Russia is viewed as a mechanism to eventually reintegrate the country into the international community, similar to the post-WWII reintegration of Japan and Germany, provided the regime changes its behavior.
- The maritime order allows nations to selectively join international organizations based on their interests while retaining provisos to oppose specific parts they disagree with.
- Global expectations indicate that no international order is viable if the US acts as a hegemon that forces other nations to comply, necessitating a system where prosperity is based on mutual protection rather than coercion.
- There is a stated commitment to preserving the current maritime order indefinitely, as it serves as the foundation for global prosperity and wealth generation.