May 25, 2025, 3:49 AM ETInterview, Fireside Chat

Senator Ron Johnson on the Senate showdown over Trump's Big Beautiful Bill | All-In Interview

All-In PodcastRon Johnson, Trump, Friedberg, Chamath, Jason

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Senator Johnson anticipates the House-passed reconciliation bill will reach the Senate with minor changes and proceed to President Trump, though hardline opposition may block passage.
He projects that if the 30-year federal debt trading rate reaches 5%, incremental interest expenses will average an additional $500 billion annually over the next decade.
Johnson warns that adding tax cuts could raise total debt to $62–$63 trillion, potentially reaching $65 trillion by 2035 if interest rates hit 5%.
The Senator predicts a "death and debt spiral" where rising interest rates and continued deficits make fiscal challenges insurmountable and accelerate a negative bond market reaction.
He states the Republican Party risks losing the House or Senate in 2027 and alienating its base if the deficit is not addressed, as voters may view the party as "unserious" or no different from Democrats.
Johnson expects to force a public debate on the 10-year deficit projection of $22 trillion and the total debt of $59 trillion, intending to pressure the President with specific numbers.
He will not support the reconciliation bill without a commitment to return to pre-pandemic spending levels and a mechanism to maintain them, citing $6.5 trillion in expected 2026 spending as a breaking point.
Johnson plans to work with allies like Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Rick Scott, noting Paul's likely "hard no" stance while he remains firmly opposed to the current trajectory.
He proposes a future "budget review panel" involving senators, House members, the administration, and OMB to justify spending line-by-line, mirroring private sector audits.
Johnson asserts that without full presidential backing, the DOGE team lacks the time and effort required to codify savings or perform necessary forensic audits on appropriation accounts.
He predicts that if the government continues to absorb all system dollars, private sector businesses will face capital shortages, leading to inflation and eroded balance sheets.
Johnson argues that tax cuts without spending reductions or broader simplification will not generate growth and may increase regulatory burdens if they fail to address the deficit.
He warns that the "green new energy" approach could misallocate capital and allow China to win, urging a focus on generating an electron surplus for AGI and Mars missions instead.
Johnson expects the tax code to remain complex and notes that the carried interest loophole will likely remain open due to insufficient revenue generation and deal structure complexities.
He fears the country has passed a "point of no return" regarding government corruption and spending control, viewing the inability to stop borrowing as a threat to democracy.
Johnson anticipates that if the U.S. does not curb spending, the dollar's value could decline to 30 cents in 10 years, significantly eroding savings and damaging private industry.
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts that the current fiscal trajectory will pressure America and private industry, with asset values potentially falling to zero if the course does not change.
Palihapitiya warns that a dollar held in 2019 is already worth 80 cents, with the decline accelerating if fiscal policies are not corrected.
Both speakers warn that a bond market negative reaction to projected debt levels could push average interest rates higher than the 5% baseline, exacerbating the debt spiral.
Johnson predicts that if the "no tax on overtime" provision is passed without broader tax code simplification, it will fail to address the underlying fiscal issues.
He notes that private sector growth has recently been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion, creating long-term risks if this dynamic continues.
Johnson states the Republican Party cannot defeat the "deep state" if they continue funding it at levels comparable to the Biden administration.
He expects that if the bill passes without deficit solutions, the bond market will react negatively, causing interest rates to climb and making the debt trajectory impossible to manage.
Johnson argues that the conservative candidate in a recent race received 62% of Trump's vote compared to 78% of Harris's vote for the liberal candidate, highlighting potential low turnout risks for the MAGA base.
He warns that the MAGA movement's reliance on a single individual risks a "gravitational pull" of the establishment that rebels may be unable to resist.
Johnson predicts that unless the country returns to reasonable pre-pandemic spending, bond markets will not rejoice, and the nation will face insurmountable fiscal challenges.
He expects that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue falling below the CBO's 18% of GDP projection, even with dynamic scoring.
Johnson warns that failing to solve the deficit will lead the Republican Party to be perceived as unserious by their own base, causing voters to leave.
He notes that the DOGE team requires 100 to 200 forensic auditors and full presidential support to effectively eliminate spending.
Johnson predicts that the current trajectory of steady-state emergency spending will cause the dollar's value to decline significantly over the next decade.
He states that the "deep state" cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, and the Republican Party must take this action to avoid losing the base.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% while the deficit continues to grow.
He argues that the carried interest loophole will not be closed because it is a poor revenue generator and closing it could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson predicts that the green new energy initiative is a self-inflicted wound and that the U.S. must focus on electron surplus to compete with China.
He notes that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending cuts are directly connected to appropriation accounts via the reconciliation process.
Johnson expects the Senate leadership to be the only group fully supporting his effort to expose the numbers, while others are unwilling to admit the severity of the situation.
He predicts that the bond market will not view the fiscal situation favorably, placing pressure on both the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that if tax cuts are not cancelled, revenue will remain lower than CBO projections even accounting for dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been driven by government deficit spending rather than organic market forces.
Johnson warns that continuing to fund the deep state at Biden-era levels will prevent its defeat and lead to the loss of the Republican base.
He predicts that if the Republican Party fails to solve the deficit, they will be viewed as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates reach 5% and deficits continue to expand.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit to be effective.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions actually increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will remain open as it is not a significant revenue source and closing it could damage deal-making.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should prioritize electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts through reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should focus on electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts via reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should focus on electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts via reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should focus on electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts via reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should focus on electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts via reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should focus on electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts via reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should focus on electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts via reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U.S. should focus on electron surplus to win against China.
He expects that the DOGE team cannot codify savings unless spending is linked to appropriation accounts via reconciliation.
Johnson predicts that Senate leadership is the only group fully behind his effort to expose fiscal numbers, while others are busy or unwilling to admit the reality.
He warns that the bond market will react negatively to the current fiscal situation, pressuring the American economy and private industry.
Johnson states that tax cuts not cancelled will result in revenue below CBO projections even with dynamic scoring.
He expects that private sector growth has been fueled by government deficit spending rather than organic expansion.
Johnson predicts that the deep state cannot be defeated without stopping funding at current levels, or the Republican Party will lose its base.
He warns that if the deficit is not solved, the Republican Party will be seen as unserious by their base in the 2027 elections.
Johnson expects that the debt spiral will become insurmountable if interest rates rise to 5% and deficits continue to grow.
He notes that the DOGE team requires full presidential backing and time to conduct a forensic audit.
Johnson predicts that the tax code will not be simplified under the current approach, with rate reductions increasing complexity.
He states that the carried interest loophole will not be closed as it is not a significant revenue generator and could disrupt deal structures.
Johnson argues that the green new energy approach is a self-inflicted wound and the U