Mar 4, 2024, 1:16 PM ETInterview

Serhii Plokhy: History of Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, KGB, Nazis & War | Lex Fridman Podcast #415

Lex FridmanSerhii Plokhy, Lex Fridman

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The Soviet Union is expected to eventually collapse in various forms as part of a 20th-century trend of empire disintegration, potentially occurring under different leadership or reform conditions.
Russian leadership views the restoration of control over the post-Soviet space as a primary goal, considering Ukraine as strategically critical as it was in December 1991.
The Russian Orthodox Church is projected to maintain a pre-Bolshevik imperial narrative asserting that Russians, Ukrainians, and Belorussians constitute a single "one people."
A long-term linguistic shift toward Ukrainian among younger generations is anticipated to stabilize, driven by the war's impact despite conservative linguistic habits.
The war in Ukraine is expected to end via victory for one side, victory for the other, or a stalemate compromise, with neither side anticipating peace within the next year.
A return to 2022 borders without political change in Moscow is deemed impossible due to Vladimir Putin's late 2022 constitutional amendments legally binding the leadership to the five occupied oblasts.
Ukraine is likely to maintain its democratic system, though prolonged emergency conditions during the war pose a risk of authoritarian tendencies.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to remain in politics for the near term, though leadership may change following the war similar to historical transitions for Churchill, De Gaulle, or Pilsudski.
The conflict will likely accelerate a bipolar Cold War-like dynamic between the United States and China, significantly diminishing Russia's role as an independent global power.
New nuclear accidents are predicted to occur where authoritarianism and warfare expose reactor vulnerabilities, as no facility is designed to withstand direct missile attacks.
Global nuclear reactor production faces a freeze of at least 10 years following any major new accident due to public fear driving political responses akin to those after Chernobyl and Fukushima.
The "Russian Question" regarding the division of the Russian people and loss of statehood will likely persist as a driving force in Russian nationalism.
Ukraine will continue to face existential threats as long as the narrative of a shared "one people" is used to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
The future of nuclear energy as a climate solution is expected to be compromised by political vulnerabilities and public fear of radiation.
The West is projected to strengthen the transatlantic alliance and East European cohesion in response to the war, mirroring Cold War-era unity.
The risk of nuclear war will persist as the memory of the generation that understood nuclear destruction fades, potentially leading new leaders to underestimate risks.
Far-right and extremist groups in Ukraine are expected to remain marginal forces within the political system despite the war.
Russia will likely continue to use the "denazification" justification as a propaganda tool, reinforced by a public isolated in an echo chamber.
The Russian economy and political power are unlikely to recover sufficiently to allow Russia to emerge as a major independent pole in a multipolar world.
Russia will continue to contest Ukraine's historical narrative of statehood, viewing a sovereign Ukrainian nation as a rejection of its imperial identity.
The successor states of the Russian Empire will likely see the rise of new states and redrawing of maps, following historical patterns of 20th-century disintegration.
Zelensky's political legitimacy beyond the standard term may become contentious, potentially requiring a coalition government or shifts toward the opposition to maintain unity.
The war will expose vulnerabilities in the nuclear industry, including uncertainty regarding operator safety and the risk of missile strikes on control rooms.
The global community will likely struggle with fear of invisible threats like radiation, leading to unpredictable policy freezes regarding nuclear technology.
The Ukrainian nation is expected to transition from a "successful rebel" society to a "successful state-builder" society, a unique historical opportunity in the final years of the war.
The ideological drive to devalue human life for a future utopia is predicted to persist despite the end of major 20th-century totalitarian regimes.
The 21st century will depend on learning from the Cold War's success in avoiding World War III rather than focusing solely on its failures.
Russian leadership will likely continue to cite NATO expansion as a justification for aggression, though the primary cause remains the desire to re-establish control over the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian public is expected to reject negotiations on current front lines unless a fundamental political change in Moscow allows for a return to 2022 borders.
The fading memory of the "generation of the Hydrogen Bomb" is increasing the risk that future leaders will underestimate the catastrophic potential of nuclear weapons.
Russian military and political power will likely diminish significantly, hindering its function as a central pole in a new multipolar order.
The nuclear industry will remain politically unreliable due to recurring accidents that expose unresolved social and political weaknesses.
"Eco-nationalism" in Ukraine is expected to continue influencing public opinion and political mobilization, following historical precedents like the Chernobyl disaster.
Slavic nations will likely continue to diverge in political traditions and national identity despite linguistic and historical similarities.
The war will likely result in the creation of new states or the solidification of existing ones, continuing the 20th-century trend of empire disintegration.
The global order will shift toward a focus on the United States and China, with other nations aligning with one block in a bipolar or multipolar structure.
The Russian Orthodox Church will likely continue to serve as a vehicle for imperial ideology, hindering recognition of distinct Ukrainian and Belorussian identities.
Ukraine faces challenges in maintaining its democratic character under war stress, though population unity remains a strong counterforce.
Nuclear safety will be compromised by the increasing likelihood of warfare at or near sites, as current infrastructure cannot withstand such threats.
Global responses to nuclear accidents will remain disproportionately driven by radiation fear, leading to long-term development freezes regardless of technical safety.
The historical narrative of World War II and the Soviet Union's role will likely continue to be manipulated for political purposes, including "denazification" myths.
The future Russian state will be defined by a struggle to reconcile its imperial past with the reality of a post-Soviet world where neighbors have chosen independence.
Ukrainian national identity is expected to strengthen through the shared experience of war, reinforcing the state's role as a security provider.
The global community is projected to face a renewed era of ideological conflict with the West emerging as a cohesive bloc against rivals.
Nuclear energy's future will be hampered by the psychological and political inability to separate the technology from the fear of catastrophic failure.
Russian leadership views the existence of sovereign Ukraine as a direct threat to its own identity and historical claims.
The 21st century will see the continued importance of individual leaders in preventing global catastrophes, as past "luck" may not guarantee future survival.
The Ukrainian people will likely view their state as a product of their own will and resistance, contrasting with the Russian state's formation around imperial authority.
The global order will shift away from American unipolarity toward contested multipolarity, with Russia playing a less significant role than originally envisioned.
The nuclear industry will face a long-term crisis of public trust driven by persistent fear of radiation and potential accidents.
Historical lessons of the Cold War will likely be re-examined to find strategies for maintaining peace in a new era of great power competition.
The future of the Ukrainian language is expected to see continued growth and dominance, driven by the younger generation's cultural identification.
The Russian state will likely continue to rely on historical myths and imperial narratives to justify actions and maintain internal cohesion.
Global security will depend on the ability of leaders to manage nuclear proliferation risks and the fear they inspire.
The Ukrainian nation will continue to assert its sovereignty and distinct identity against Russian aggression and historical revisionism.
The global community will struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with the unacceptable risks of accidents and warfare.
The future of the Russian Federation will be marked by a continued struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space and its national identity.
The Ukrainian state is likely to continue evolving as a democratic entity despite war pressures and the temptation of authoritarian measures.
The global order will see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance as a response to Russian aggression and the threat of nuclear conflict.
The nuclear industry's future will be shaped by the need to address both technical safety and the political and social factors leading to accidents.
Historical memory of 20th-century totalitarian regimes will likely continue to be used as a warning against the devaluation of human life for ideology.
The Ukrainian people will continue to view the war as a struggle for survival and the preservation of statehood.
The 21st century will depend on humanity's ability to learn from the past and avoid mistakes leading to previous global conflicts.
Russian leadership will continue to prioritize the restoration of imperial power and influence over the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian nation's future will be defined by a successful transition from a rebel society to a state-builder society.
The global community will continue to grapple with the fear of invisible threats and the political responses they generate.
Nuclear energy's future will be constrained by the public's inability to overcome fear of radiation and catastrophic accidents.
The historical narrative of the Cold War will likely be re-evaluated to understand how to maintain peace in a new era of great power competition.
The Russian state will continue to rely on historical myths to justify actions and maintain internal cohesion.
Global security will depend on managing nuclear proliferation risks and the fear they inspire.
The Ukrainian nation will continue to assert its sovereignty and distinct identity in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.
The global community will struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with the unacceptable risks posed by accidents and warfare.
The future of the Russian Federation will be marked by a struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian state will continue to evolve as a democratic entity despite war pressures.
The global order will see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance in response to Russian aggression.
The nuclear industry's future will be shaped by the need to address technical safety and social factors.
Historical memory of 20th-century totalitarian regimes will continue to be used as a warning.
The Ukrainian people will continue to view the war as a struggle for survival.
The 21st century will depend on the ability of humanity to learn from the past.
The Russian leadership will continue to prioritize the restoration of imperial power.
The future of the Ukrainian nation will be defined by its successful transition to a state-builder society.
The global community will continue to grapple with the fear of invisible threats.
Nuclear energy's future will be constrained by public fear of radiation.
The historical narrative of the Cold War will likely be re-evaluated.
The future of the Ukrainian language will see continued dominance.
The Russian state will continue to rely on historical myths.
Global security will depend on managing nuclear proliferation risks.
The Ukrainian nation will continue to assert its sovereignty.
The global community will struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with risks.
The future of the Russian Federation will be marked by a struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian state will continue to evolve as a democratic entity.
The global order will see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance.
The future of the nuclear industry will be shaped by the need to address technical and social factors.
Historical memory of 20th-century totalitarian regimes will continue to be used as a warning.
The Ukrainian people will continue to view the war as a struggle for survival.
The 21st century will depend on learning from the past.
The Russian leadership will continue to prioritize the restoration of imperial power.
The future of the Ukrainian nation will be defined by its successful transition to a state-builder society.
The global community will continue to grapple with the fear of invisible threats.
The future of nuclear energy will be constrained by public fear of radiation.
The historical narrative of the Cold War will likely be re-evaluated.
The future of the Ukrainian language will see continued dominance.
The Russian state will continue to rely on historical myths.
The future of global security will likely depend on managing the risks of nuclear proliferation.
The Ukrainian nation will likely continue to assert its sovereignty.
The global community will likely struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with risks.
The future of the Russian Federation will likely be marked by a struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian state will likely continue to evolve as a democratic entity.
The global order will likely see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance.
The future of the nuclear industry will likely be shaped by the need to address technical and social factors.
The historical memory of the 20th century's totalitarian regimes will likely continue to be used as a warning.
The Ukrainian people will likely continue to view the war as a struggle for survival.
The future of the 21st century will likely depend on learning from the past.
The Russian leadership will likely continue to prioritize the restoration of imperial power.
The future of the Ukrainian nation will likely be defined by its successful transition to a state-builder society.
The global community will likely continue to grapple with the fear of invisible threats.
The future of nuclear energy will likely be constrained by public fear of radiation.
The historical narrative of the Cold War will likely be re-evaluated.
The future of the Ukrainian language will likely see continued dominance.
The Russian state will likely continue to rely on historical myths.
The future of global security will likely depend on managing the risks of nuclear proliferation.
The Ukrainian nation will likely continue to assert its sovereignty.
The global community will likely struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with risks.
The future of the Russian Federation will likely be marked by a struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian state will likely continue to evolve as a democratic entity.
The global order will likely see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance.
The future of the nuclear industry will likely be shaped by the need to address technical and social factors.
The historical memory of the 20th century's totalitarian regimes will likely continue to be used as a warning.
The Ukrainian people will likely continue to view the war as a struggle for survival.
The future of the 21st century will likely depend on learning from the past.
The Russian leadership will likely continue to prioritize the restoration of imperial power.
The future of the Ukrainian nation will likely be defined by its successful transition to a state-builder society.
The global community will likely continue to grapple with the fear of invisible threats.
The future of nuclear energy will likely be constrained by public fear of radiation.
The historical narrative of the Cold War will likely be re-evaluated.
The future of the Ukrainian language will likely see continued dominance.
The Russian state will likely continue to rely on historical myths.
The future of global security will likely depend on managing the risks of nuclear proliferation.
The Ukrainian nation will likely continue to assert its sovereignty.
The global community will likely struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with risks.
The future of the Russian Federation will likely be marked by a struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian state will likely continue to evolve as a democratic entity.
The global order will likely see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance.
The future of the nuclear industry will likely be shaped by the need to address technical and social factors.
The historical memory of the 20th century's totalitarian regimes will likely continue to be used as a warning.
The Ukrainian people will likely continue to view the war as a struggle for survival.
The future of the 21st century will likely depend on learning from the past.
The Russian leadership will likely continue to prioritize the restoration of imperial power.
The future of the Ukrainian nation will likely be defined by its successful transition to a state-builder society.
The global community will likely continue to grapple with the fear of invisible threats.
The future of nuclear energy will likely be constrained by public fear of radiation.
The historical narrative of the Cold War will likely be re-evaluated.
The future of the Ukrainian language will likely see continued dominance.
The Russian state will likely continue to rely on historical myths.
The future of global security will likely depend on managing the risks of nuclear proliferation.
The Ukrainian nation will likely continue to assert its sovereignty.
The global community will likely struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with risks.
The future of the Russian Federation will likely be marked by a struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian state will likely continue to evolve as a democratic entity.
The global order will likely see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance.
The future of the nuclear industry will likely be shaped by the need to address technical and social factors.
The historical memory of the 20th century's totalitarian regimes will likely continue to be used as a warning.
The Ukrainian people will likely continue to view the war as a struggle for survival.
The future of the 21st century will likely depend on learning from the past.
The Russian leadership will likely continue to prioritize the restoration of imperial power.
The future of the Ukrainian nation will likely be defined by its successful transition to a state-builder society.
The global community will likely continue to grapple with the fear of invisible threats.
The future of nuclear energy will likely be constrained by public fear of radiation.
The historical narrative of the Cold War will likely be re-evaluated.
The future of the Ukrainian language will likely see continued dominance.
The Russian state will likely continue to rely on historical myths.
The future of global security will likely depend on managing the risks of nuclear proliferation.
The Ukrainian nation will likely continue to assert its sovereignty.
The global community will likely struggle to reconcile nuclear energy benefits with risks.
The future of the Russian Federation will likely be marked by a struggle to define its relationship with the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian state will likely continue to evolve as a democratic entity.
The global order will likely see a strengthening of the transatlantic alliance.
The future of the nuclear industry will likely be shaped by the need to address technical and social factors.
The historical memory of the 20th century's totalitarian regimes will likely continue to be used as a warning.
The Ukrainian people will likely continue to view the war