Shun while it lasted: never-Trumpers’ fading sway

US Republican Politics and the "Never Trump" Movement

• Former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, former House member Liz Cheney, have explicitly announced they will vote for Kamala Harris rather than Donald Trump.
• Several high-profile Republicans endorsed Harris on stage at the Democratic National Convention, citing democracy concerns.
• The "Never Trump" movement, once a cohesive group of traditional conservatives, is currently divided on strategy:
  • One faction argues Republicans should not vote for Harris to avoid compromising conservative values; former Senator Pat Toomey stated he would vote for neither candidate.
  • A larger faction believes voting for Harris is the necessary step to prevent the threat Donald Trump poses to democracy.
• Financial backing for anti-Trump efforts includes $40 million in advertising planned by "Republican Voters Against Trump" in swing states.
• Target voter blocs for the Lincoln Project include "Red Dawn" conservatives (Reagan-era traditionalists) and "Dobstads" (millennial fathers opposing abortion bans).
• Polling data indicates limited impact: the share of Republicans voting for Trump rose from 80% to 90% since 2016, and Republican-leaning independent support has remained stagnant since 2020.
• Analysts suggest the movement lacks followers because the most persuadable voters are those paying the least attention to political commentary.

China's Retirement Age Reform and Demographic Consequences

• The Chinese government has officially raised the mandatory retirement age, the first such increase in decades, to address a pension fund projected to run out by 2035.
• This reform aims to counteract a severe aging crisis where individuals over 60 comprise over 20% of the population, with a fertility rate of 1.1, far below the 2.1 replacement level.
• Childcare Crisis: Raising the retirement age risks exacerbating China's fertility decline because fewer than 8% of toddlers are enrolled in nurseries.
  • Up to 80% of urban households rely on grandparents for childcare; studies indicate women with this support are four times more likely to have a second child.
  • Keeping grandparents in the workforce for 3–5 additional years may force couples to delay childbirth or forego children entirely.
• Labor Market Tensions: The government faces a circular dilemma:
  • While older workers staying employed is intended to boost the labor force and consumption, young people fear it will reduce job openings for new entrants.
  • Social media backlash has included calls for experts to "die," prompting immediate censorship by state authorities.
• Public dissatisfaction mirrors the scale of protests seen regarding pension reforms in France, presenting a stability risk for the Chinese government.

Luxury Pet Care Market Expansion

• Market Size and Growth: US pet spending reached $186 billion last year and is projected by Morgan Stanley analysts to grow to $261 billion by 2030.
• Resilience During Economic Downturn: Unlike other consumer sectors, pet spending continues to rise despite high inflation and job market anxieties.
• Generational Drivers:
  • Millennials and Gen Z are the primary growth demographic, often delaying marriage and childbirth in favor of pet ownership.
  • Younger owners treat pets as children, spending significantly on veterinary care, gifts, and premium food.
• Product Innovation and Premiumization:
  • Consumers are purchasing ultra-luxury items, including dogs' colognes, moisturizers, and private jet amenities (e.g., Vista Pet in-flight kits).
  • Companies like Butternut Box test pet food taste with human palates, while brands like "Dog by Lisa" specialize in grooming products.
• Corporate Consolidation:
  • Major conglomerates like Mars (2/3 of turnover), Nestlé, and Colgate derive significant revenue from pet divisions.
  • Private equity investment in the veterinary sector has triggered anti-trust concerns due to rapid consolidation in the UK and US.