Interview, Podcast
Social change is often abrupt & unpredictable — why? | Cass Sunstein (2019)
- Core Thesis: Social change often appears sudden and unpredictable ("whoosh") due to the interplay of four mechanisms: preference falsification, diverse thresholds for action, interdependencies (social cascades), and group polarization.
- Preference Falsification: Individuals frequently conceal their true beliefs, desires, or experiences due to social norms or fear of ostracization, creating a gap between private views and public behavior.
- Example: In Saudi Arabia, young men privately supported wives working but publicly believed the norm forbade it; revealing that most peers supported it led to a dramatic increase in female job applications.
- Syria Case Study: Refugees initially claim "everything is okay" to survive, taking months to trust outsiders enough to express true feelings, illustrating how silence masks true sentiment.
- Diverse Thresholds: People differ in the amount of social support required before they act.
- Zeros: Individuals who act regardless of social support (e.g., Rosa Parks, Peter Singer).
- Ones, Twos, Threes, etc.: People who require specific numbers of others to act before they join; movements stall if the chain of visible participants breaks at any threshold level.
- The "Infinites": Individuals who never act regardless of the cascade; their presence limits the potential size of a movement.
- Interdependencies and Cascades: Social change depends on the timing and visibility of actions by those with lower thresholds, which emboldens those with higher thresholds.
- Unpredictability: It is conceptually difficult to predict movements because observers cannot see private preferences or know others' thresholds in real-time, and outcomes rely on random serendipitous interactions.
- Status Quo Stability: The absence of visible "zeros" or early "ones" often maintains the status quo, even if a majority privately opposes it.
- Group Polarization: When like-minded groups deliberate, they tend to move toward more extreme positions aligned with their initial tendencies.
- Mechanism: Information exchange within the group reinforces existing views; the group hears more arguments supporting their position than opposing ones.
- Implication for Activists: Deliberative groups can inadvertently radicalize members; interventions providing diverse information (e.g., Jim Fishkin's deliberative polls) can mitigate this.
- Adaptive Preferences: In some cases, individuals do not just falsify preferences but genuinely adapt their desires to the status quo, making change more difficult.
- Data Paradox: Women's subjective well-being has declined since the 1970s despite rising equality, potentially due to adapting to or accepting inequality as "normal."
- Hashtag #MeToo Case Study: The movement exemplifies the transition from preference/experience falsification to a cascade.
- Visibility Effect: Alyssa Milano's tweet reached 45% of US Facebook users' networks within 24 hours; the visibility of "ones" and "twos" lowered the threshold for "fours" and "fives" to speak.
- Transformation: The movement did not just reveal pre-existing views but transformed values, converting shame into dignity for victims and altering the moral framework for perpetrators.
- Strategic Implications for Activists:
- Target Hidden Consensus: Activists should identify issues where private views align with their goals but are suppressed by norms, then publicize the extent of this hidden agreement (e.g., "Most people like you believe X").
- Descriptive Norms: Highlighting that a norm is "emerging" or "increasing" can be more effective than stating the current norm, encouraging those who haven't yet decided to join.
- Avoid Bad Leadership: The movement can be derailed if the initial "zeros" are perceived as unattractive, hypocritical, or violent (e.g., the animal rights movement in the UK was damaged by terrorist actions against labs).
- E.A.S.T. Framework: For behavioral change, make actions Easy, Attractive, Social, and Timely (e.g., Amazon's "frustration-free packaging" sells sustainability via convenience rather than ethics).
- Specific Predictions for Future Change:
- Animal Welfare: Sunstein predicts this area is ripe for a cascade due to preference falsification (many care but don't speak) and economic shifts (e.g., lab-grown meat making alternatives easier and more attractive).
- Unpredictability of Timing: While the direction of interest may be identifiable, the exact moment of a cascade cannot be predicted due to the randomness of social interactions.
- Critiques and Nuances:
- New Values vs. Old: Critics argue movements often create new values rather than just unleashing old ones; Sunstein acknowledges this but emphasizes that norms must shift for new values to take root.
- Replication Crisis: Sunstein dismisses the "replication crisis" as hyperbole, noting that group polarization is a robust, replicated finding, though he acknowledges conditions where it does not occur (e.g., providing external information, "Eureka" problems).
- Career Advice for Social Impact:
- Focus on Interests: Sunstein advises against making "having social impact" a primary career goal; instead, one should deeply learn about a specific problem ("know something about something") and do what they love.
- Government vs. Academia: He notes that the practical, implementation-focused skills required for government are distinct from the theoretical creativity of academia; success in one does not guarantee success in the other.
- Rebels: Society needs "rebels" (zeros) to break the dam, but they should be supported carefully as they can also be misguided or harmful.