Interview, Podcast
Social change is often abrupt & unpredictable — why? | Cass Sunstein (2019)
- Social norms in Saudi Arabia regarding women's employment are expected to shift dramatically within four months following research confirming private male support.
- Predicting the precise nature of future social movements is described as fundamentally unreliable due to the inability to observe internal preferences, thresholds, and random social interactions.
- Historical change is anticipated to result from small, serendipitous factors and specific timing rather than boundless historical arcs.
- Group deliberation is expected to drive individuals toward more extreme positions that align with their pre-existing tendencies regarding issues such as climate change.
- The Chinese government is expected to maintain stability by censoring specific calls for demonstrations at precise times and locations while permitting general dissent to remain visible.
- Activists are projected to achieve greater success by highlighting hidden preferences that already align with their goals rather than attempting to persuade those with sincere opposition.
- Social movements may succeed through a cascade where initial "zeros" and "ones" speaking out embolden subsequent numbers to join, provided this chain of visibility does not break.
- Movements led by figures perceived as unattractive, hypocritical, or violent may face disrepute and struggle to attract moderate supporters.
- Revealing hidden preferences and experiences, particularly concerning sexual abuse, is expected to transform victims' shame into dignity and shift the values of perpetrators.
- Individuals focusing on specific tasks they love and learning facts are expected to achieve more social impact than those explicitly planning to create it.
- Working in government is expected to anchor academic thinking in practical constraints, making a return to purely idealistic thinking difficult.
- Adaptive preferences are anticipated to develop where individuals do not voice desires for change despite facing inequality, as their wants adjust to their background conditions.
- People are expected to join movements more readily if they perceive the norm as emerging rather than established, aiming to be on the right side of history.
- Animal welfare is currently identified as the only area with non-reckless potential for a future social cascade, driven by preference falsification, social sanctions, and economic feasibility of substitutes like the Impossible Burger.
- A subsequent book is expected to be available for discussion in approximately two years.