Solutions to Climate Change: A 10-Year Game Plan

Scientific Trends and Observations (1988–2018):

• 1988 marked a pivotal year for climate discourse: Jim Hansen testified before Congress, Yellowstone wildfires occurred, and CO2 levels were 350 ppm for the last time in recent history.
• Peter Glick's 1988 projections regarding California water resources were accurate: warming has shifted water systems from snowpack-dominated to liquid-dominated, causing earlier melt and winter flooding.
• Warming in California has doubled the probability of drought years by increasing the frequency of warm temperatures coinciding with low precipitation.
• Analysis of record-setting heat events shows global warming influences more than 80% of surface areas with reliable data for hottest events.
• Extreme wet and dry events are influenced by global warming in approximately 50% of monitored surface areas.
• The U.S. has experienced over 80 climate and weather disasters in the last decade costing at least $1 billion each, totaling hundreds of billions in damages.

Global Energy Challenges and Demographics:

• Three primary global challenges for the next decade: doubling total energy supply, increasing energy access for billions, and decarbonizing the energy system to meet the Paris Agreement.
• The global population will add three billion more middle-class consumers by 2040 (increasing from 2 billion to 5 billion), primarily in China, India, and the developing world.
• Natural gas offers a transitional solution with 60% lower CO2 emissions compared to coal for electricity generation.
• Global energy efficiency has improved by ~1% annually since 1970; doubling or tripling this rate is required to meet future demands.
• Switching from primitive biomass cooking to clean fuels like LPG could address major global health issues while reducing emissions.

Policy Proposals and Political Strategy:

• Bob Inglis (republicen.org) advocates for a revenue-neutral, border-adjustable carbon tax to "internalize negative externalities" and appeal to conservative values.
• The border-adjustable tax is designed to incentivize global markets to adopt similar carbon pricing, using U.S. market access as leverage without UN dependency.
• Inglis identifies a potential collision between populism and conservatism, suggesting conservatives must overcome an "inferiority complex" regarding climate policy by leading with market-based solutions.
• Ye Qi (Brookings, Beijing) notes China is already leading via the world's largest carbon market (covering 5 billion tons of CO2 by end of 2017), though a carbon tax remains a potential alternative.
• China and the U.S. have ongoing R&D cooperation on clean coal, building efficiency, and the water-energy nexus since 2009, contributing to China's emissions peak in 2015.
• Dianne Regas (Environmental Defense Fund) emphasizes that while cap-and-trade is preferred, policies must reward innovation; California's program has successfully driven down emissions at low cost.

Corporate and Industry Perspectives:

• ExxonMobil (Peter Trellenberg) argues that carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a cost-effective necessity at ~$100/ton, citing Norway's $80–$90/ton tax as a driver for its use.
• The oil and gas industry views CCS as essential for decarbonizing petrochemicals and aviation, which cannot be easily electrified due to energy density requirements.
• Biofuels research, specifically algae-based fuels, is highlighted as a scalable solution that avoids the food-water nexus by utilizing brackish or gray water.
• Peter Trellenberg notes that while industry focuses on middle-class markets, local entrepreneurship is best suited to develop distribution networks for energy access in the "bottom billion."

R&D, Investment, and Geopolitics:

• There is a bipartisan disinvestment in basic science R&D, historically targeted by "Golden Fleece" awards despite the long-term strategic necessity.
• China is investing over $100 billion annually in clean energy (36% of the world total), driving rapid deployment of EVs and solar, creating competitive pressure on U.S. industry.
• The Trump administration's 2016 campaign statement supported maintaining basic science funding even in tight budgets, though current administrative actions (e.g., NSF/EPA budget cuts) contradict this.
• Security concerns regarding climate change were highlighted by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, though the administration currently downplays the social cost of carbon.
• Green public procurement is identified as an untapped resource in both the U.S. and China to accelerate innovation in battery and solar technologies.

Risk, Vulnerability, and Adaptation:

• Climate risk is defined by the intersection of physical hazard, exposure, and vulnerability; population growth and poverty are currently the main drivers of vulnerability.
• Adaptation (reducing vulnerability) is distinct from mitigation (emissions reduction) and can be addressed immediately, whereas emissions reductions take decades to show climatic effects.
• Sub-Saharan Africa faces "known unknowables" regarding wet/dry impacts, making vulnerability reduction via poverty alleviation a priority independent of emissions science certainty.
• The "Global Warming Paradox" describes the reality that increasing energy consumption (often via fossil fuels) is the most direct way for poor populations to reduce climate vulnerability.

Convergence and Consensus:

• The panel reached a >90% overlap on solutions: electrification, energy efficiency, market-based pricing (carbon tax/cap-and-trade), and technological innovation.
• Consensus exists that no single entity (government, NGO, or corporation) can solve the issue alone; a multi-stakeholder approach is required.
• There is agreement that the current climate crisis is not a solvable "pollution event" but an emergent, long-term issue integrated into public health, economics, and national security.