Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Solutions to Climate Change: A 10-Year Game Plan
Milken InstituteAndrew Revkin, Noah Diffenbaugh, Bob Inglis, Qi Ye, Diane Regas, Pete Trelenberg, Andy Revkin, Carolyn Jungermann, Paul Telles, Amy Christensen
- California's water resources are projected to shift to a liquid-dominated regime featuring earlier snowmelt, increased rain relative to snow at lower elevations, winter flooding, and summer deficits, with global warming doubling the odds of drought years when low precipitation coincides with warm temperatures.
- Global warming influences record-breaking heat in over 80% of the surface area with reliable observations and roughly half the area regarding extreme wet and dry events.
- Global energy supply requires doubling within the next decade to increase access and meet Paris Agreement goals, while total supply may need to quadruple as climate change continues between current levels and that higher threshold.
- Stabilizing global temperatures and sea levels necessitates decarbonizing the global energy system to net zero, though CO2 emissions have a commitment period where policy-driven rate reductions will not be noticeable to the climate system for decades.
- By 2070, population growth and poverty will remain the primary drivers of vulnerability in sub-Saharan Africa, independent of emissions reductions, while over 80 U.S. weather disasters in the last decade have caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damages.
- Increasing energy consumption is identified as the most direct method for large populations to decrease vulnerability to climate stresses, with natural gas switches offering significant opportunities to reduce CO2 emissions and improve living standards.
- China is expected to lead international climate policy while the U.S. President delays action, with China's nationwide carbon market covering 5 billion tons of CO2 emissions by the end of 2017 and emissions peaking around 2030 after a decline starting in 2015.
- China faces a potential climate impact of two to three degrees Celsius, exceeding the global two-degree target, driven by domestic concerns regarding air pollution, while U.S. carbon emissions are expected to reduce by 3% in the last year.
- Global emissions are expected to level off with uncertainty regarding whether the peak has already been reached, while the U.S. is currently not adapted to its present climate and faces questions regarding the social cost of carbon.
- Portugal is expected to demonstrate the feasibility of running an electricity system with no fossil fuels for multiple days using modern market tools, and a revenue-neutral carbon tax with border adjustments is expected to fit conservative values.
- If the U.S. implements a border-adjustable carbon tax, China is expected to adopt a similar carbon price within 24 hours, leading the world to follow without an international agreement.
- China prefers a consumption-based approach to carbon border adjustments while the U.S. prefers a production-based approach, though a domestic carbon tax with border adjustments is expected to work in both nations.
- The U.S. opening of an LNG export terminal is expected to help China move away from coal more rapidly, while cooperation on carbon capture and storage research is expected to continue following agreements signed since November 2009.
- A growing world population is projected to include 5 billion middle-class consumers by 2040, creating a significant challenge that requires global energy efficiency gains to double or triple from the current rate of 1% per year.
- Providing LPG access for the bottom billion in poor countries requires local distribution networks developed by local people, while algae biofuel technology is expected to be scalable without competing with the food-water nexus by utilizing brackish or gray water.
- Liquid fuels produced via technology like algae are expected to remain necessary for aviation and heavy-duty trucking due to critical energy density requirements.
- Carbon capture and storage is expected to be a necessary technology for industrial decarbonization with a cost of about $100 per ton of CO2 avoided, serving as part of the mix required to achieve very low CO2 levels and remove carbon from the atmosphere.
- Methane emissions from the natural gas system are expected to be reducible at a cost of about a penny per thousand cubic feet, and a carbon tax set using cost estimates would likely be set higher than current costs found through cap and trade in California.
- Environmental groups are expected to focus on international leadership, market-based rewards for innovators, and addressing methane emissions, while Illinois is expected to adopt new rules allowing private investors to enter the electricity system in new ways.
- China is expected to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy, potentially outpacing U.S. efforts if U.S. budgets for the NSF and EPA are cut, driving an industry that could challenge U.S. competitiveness.
- Populism and conservatism are expected to collide in the near future with conservatism performing well, while a "teachable moment" regarding economic reality is expected to emerge as coal jobs do not return due to automation and natural gas pricing.
- Conservative answers including relocation assistance are expected to address the transition of individuals from the coal industry, and putting a price on carbon is expected to make waste from pig farms an attractive energy source in North and South Carolina.
- Global warming is expected to become an emergent, long-term issue joining public health, environment, and national security concerns, requiring decades of grappling, while investment in basic science and R&D is expected to face continued pressure from populist "Golden Fleece" criticisms.
- Green public procurement is expected to be an untapped resource in both China and the U.S. to drive innovation in battery and solar technologies, while R&D government funding is expected to stop at the line of commercialization.
- Carbon tax design is expected to be difficult but remains a potential binding mechanism for solutions, and conservative values regarding accountability and freedom are expected to form the basis for a new conversation on climate policy rejecting the narrative of "doing with less."