Strengthening Democracy in the 21st Century | Global Conference 2022

Global Democratic Trends and Statutory Data

• For five consecutive years, the number of countries shifting toward authoritarianism exceeds the number moving toward democracy.
• Countries moving toward authoritarianism are currently outnumbering those moving toward democracy by a ratio of three to one.
• Sixty countries experienced democratic declines over the past year, while only 25% of countries showed improvement.
• 38% of the global population now lives in "not free" countries, marking the highest proportion in over 25 years.
• Only approximately 20% of the global population currently resides in countries classified as "free."

Mechanisms of Democratic Erosion

• Populism: Leaders often utilize populist rhetoric to promise unrealistic deliverables, gaining power through the democratic system only to dismantle it from within.
• Coercion: Authoritarian transitions frequently involve military force, coups, and the direct imposition of power by armed groups.
• Extremism: Regimes compromise democratic institutions by rewriting electoral rules, manipulating media, and bullying parliaments to remain in power.
• Crisis Exploitation: Leaders leverage crises to issue executive decrees, bypassing legislative and judicial checks to consolidate authority.
• Corruption and Impunity: Widespread corruption and a lack of accountability erode public trust, creating fertile ground for populist autocrats.
• Social Media Polarization: Digital platforms have been weaponized to spread disinformation, dehumanize opponents, and deepen societal fractures, particularly in Colombia and Afghanistan.

Regional Dynamics and Challenges

• Latin America:
  • Colombia is described as an "oasis of democracy" but faces internal risks from populism and the lingering effects of the Havana Accords.
  • Venezuela's oil infrastructure has been destroyed, while its regime utilizes illicit economies (cocaine and illegal mining) to fund political activities across the region.
  • China and Russia are increasingly active in the region, offering authoritarian alternatives or intelligence capabilities to regimes in Venezuela and Nicaragua.
• Afghanistan:
  • The 2004-2014 period saw significant democratic progress, including 10 million voters and 40% female participation, before derailing due to institutional weaknesses.
  • The US-adopted presidential system with two-term limits failed to account for Afghanistan's culture of war and tribal power dynamics.
  • The UN's mandate limitations and bureaucratic inefficiency prevented it from effectively sustaining the Afghan state.
• United States:
  • A "rural decay" trend is evident, with over 200,000 annual deaths from drugs, alcohol, and suicide, driving alienation among working-class voters.
  • The US is experiencing a polarization similar to other democracies, where educated elites and rural populations diverge significantly.
  • A "crisis of meaning" involving the decline of religious affiliation, civic organizations, and male friendships is fueling political radicalization.

Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Competition

• US Retrenchment: Post-9/11 fatigue and the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan led to a retreat from democracy promotion, though the war in Ukraine is reversing this trend.
• China vs. The West:
  • China utilizes a transactional, long-term investment model, building infrastructure and universities without political conditions.
  • The US is criticized for inconsistency, prioritizing short-term political cycles over long-term democratic engagement.
  • China is now engaging transactionally with the Taliban in Afghanistan, driven by concerns over extremism spreading to the Xinjiang region.
• Middle East (Saudi Arabia):
  • The US is facing a strategic dilemma: pressing Saudi Arabia on human rights risks losing leverage on oil production and security guarantees.
  • Critics argue the Biden administration's "halfway" approach has allowed Saudi Arabia to feel they are in the driver's seat, particularly regarding oil output and Iran.
  • Historical US reliance on authoritarian allies (e.g., Saudi Arabia) during the Cold War has created lasting distrust in the Global South.
• Ukraine Conflict:
  • The war in Ukraine is viewed as a catalyst for renewed Western unity and a "centering" effect that has softened domestic US polarization.
  • The conflict highlights the difference between fighting an external invasion versus a civil war, where the latter often complicates long-term governance missions.

Recommendations and Future Outlook

• Effectiveness over Ideology: Democracies must prioritize tangible results, economic delivery, and reduced inequality to counter the appeal of authoritarianism.
• Cultural Adaptation: Exporting democracy requires adapting systems (e.g., term limits, power structures) to local cultural realities rather than copying constitutions wholesale.
• Economic Investment: Western nations must match the scale of Chinese investment to prevent Latin America and other regions from being "poisoned" by authoritarian models.
• Social Media Regulation: There is an urgent need to address how disinformation and polarization on social media are killing democratic norms.
• Optimistic Indicators:
  • Increased education and influence of women globally correlate with lower violence and higher democratic stability.
  • Gen Z is showing acute attention to the failures of previous generations, offering potential for renewed civic engagement.
  • Democracy remains the primary driver of freedom, culture, and technological innovation.