Conference Presentation, Panel
Strengthening Democracy in the 21st Century | Global Conference 2022
- The number of nations moving toward authoritarianism is expected to continue exceeding those transitioning to democracy, driven by the rise of populist leaders who make unfulfilled promises to attract frustrated populations and eventually reform systems to secure long-term autocratic rule.
- Democracies face persistent threats from three primary themes: military coercion, extremism that compromises institutions to remain in power, and the exploitation of crises to issue executive decrees that alter systems.
- The United States is predicted to face continued difficulty projecting democratic values globally due to its own uncertain domestic shape and declining commitment to democratic principles.
- Democratic systems are expected to fail more frequently when trade, economic, and vaccination policies do not effectively support them, a pattern observed in the emergence of strongman figures in Russia, the Philippines, and El Salvador.
- Voters are projected to continue gravitating toward "strong men" due to a cycle of unfulfilled political promises, leading to disillusionment with complex institutions and a preference for perceived individual solutions.
- The democratic system in Latin America is expected to continue crumbling if corruption and impunity remain unaddressed, further expanding conditions that foster frustration and populist rise.
- External competition between China and the West is expected to create regional tensions in Latin America, with China and Russia potentially leveraging disinformation, cyber capabilities, and intelligence stations to influence local politics.
- Criminal economies, specifically cocaine and illegal gold mining, are expected to persist as funding sources for political activities in Venezuela, contributing to a trend toward autocratic logic in the region.
- The United Nations is expected to remain ineffective in preventing democratic backsliding due to cumbersome bureaucracy, resource evaporation, and a mandate that does not cover ensuring countries do not slip.
- Social media is predicted to continue exacerbating polarization, dehumanizing opponents, and framing opposing sides as threats to be eliminated rather than democratic partners.
- If the U.S. fails to create a powerful Western Hemisphere economic engine, the region is expected to be "poisoned by other ideas" such as Marxism that reframe opportunities.
- The U.S. prosperity argument is expected to fail in rural America unless policies address the breakdown caused by deaths from drugs, alcohol, and suicide that alienates working-class voters.
- The U.S. is expected to face significant challenges replicating its post-WWII economic trajectory that created the middle class, while China is predicted to face even more acute problems regarding economic growth and agency.
- A "crisis of meaning" characterized by declines in male friendships, religious affiliation, and civic organization is expected to continue feeding political manipulation and allowing autocrats to weaponize grievances.
- China's policy is predicted to likely remain a "transactional" model for the next two decades, whereas U.S. policy is expected to remain unstable and potentially reversible in a matter of months if polling changes.
- The U.S. is expected to stay in regions like Ukraine long past the point of rationality due to emotional investment, contrasting with a purely transactional approach that would lead partners to cut ties when the calculus changes.
- China is expected to continue presenting itself as a sophisticated, competitive investor in Latin America, adapting Western business practices to compete on terms that may differ from U.S. market competition.
- Social media is expected to play a "double role" in Afghanistan by worsening democracy and trust while remaining the only outlet for expression and information in the absence of traditional reporting.
- Polarization driven by social media is expected to continue reaching a point where parties frame opponents as threats to be destroyed, a dynamic predicted to kill the other partner and result in the death of democracy.
- The U.S. is expected to face a natural state of polarization if the historical outlier of the Cold War (1945-1990) is removed from context, though the Ukraine war may temporarily produce "green shoots" of moderation.
- The U.S. ability to project democracy is expected to be further undermined if domestic metrics such as high school graduation rates and life expectancy in Washington, D.C., do not improve compared to Beijing.
- The Biden administration is expected to continue a "halfway course" with Saudi Arabia that leaves the kingdom perceiving itself as being in the "driver's seat," potentially undermining U.S. leverage and credibility.
- The U.S. is expected to fail in extracting concessions from Saudi Arabia if it does not press harder, as the kingdom fundamentally depends on the implicit security guarantee of U.S. weapons.
- The U.S. risks prompting Saudi Arabia to pursue a nuclear weapons program or acquire a nuke from Pakistan if it fails to maintain an honest and trusting relationship while reevaluating Middle East dynamics.
- Saudi Arabia is expected to have remained oblivious to its relationship with Afghanistan, using the country as a "relief valve" for fundamentalists and a "backyard" for ideological differences with Iran rather than a partner for stability.
- Colombia is expected to be able to increase oil and energy production to support world markets in alignment with like-minded democracies, provided negotiations for Venezuela focus on restoring democracy rather than empowering bad actors.
- Global democracy is expected to benefit from the increased education and influence of women, which correlates with societies becoming less violent and more democratic over time.
- The younger generation (Gen Z) is expected to serve as the "only hope" for democracy as they pay acute attention to the failures of older generations and drive change.
- Better distribution of resources and higher gender equality indices are expected to be key factors in improving democratic outcomes globally.
- Democracy is expected to remain the primary source of freedom, culture, music, art, and technological innovation, with increased frustration expected if this is not recognized as the "real option" for the best future.