Talks at GS – Tony Blinken: Diplomacy: The First Response

Personal Background and Entry into Government:

• Tony Blinken served as Deputy Secretary of State from 2015 to 2017 under the Obama administration.
• Before entering public service, he worked as a lawyer, activist, journalist, and in the film business, describing himself as a "poster child" for those entering government due to lack of success elsewhere.
• He entered the Clinton administration serendipitously, initially at the State Department and later as a White House speechwriter.

Core Philosophy on Diplomacy and Military Power:

• Blinken asserts that diplomacy must be the "first response," not the sole response, to prevent problems from escalating to costly military solutions.
• He cites the maxim by Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis: "If you don't fund the State department, you'd better tell us at the Pentagon because we're going to have to buy more bullets."
• He notes a frequent "role reversal" in crisis rooms where military officials are often the most reluctant to use force, preferring diplomatic resolution, while diplomats often leverage the threat of force.
• Blinken emphasizes that robust interagency processes (e.g., the Deputies Committee) involving intellectual honesty and diverse perspectives are critical for effective policy formulation.

North Korea Policy and Strategic Shifts:

• North Korea's nuclear program has deteriorated since the Clinton-era Agreed Framework, with progress stalling under the Bush administration due to disputes over a secret uranium program.
• A strategic shift occurred under Kim Jong-un, who views nuclear weapons not as a bargaining chip but as an existential insurance policy for the regime.
• The situation became "qualitatively different" when North Korea accelerated ICBM development capable of striking the U.S., prompting President Obama to designate it a "core interest" of the U.S. and demand Chinese cooperation.
• Blinken argues sanctions are effective only if China acts as the primary economic lifeline; however, China fears regime collapse and a refugee crisis more than it wants to act.
• Proposed U.S. countermeasures if China remains passive include increased missile defense, military exercises with South Korea and Japan, and targeting specific Chinese companies supporting the North Korean military.

The Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA):

• Blinken characterizes withdrawing from the Iran deal as a "terrible mistake," arguing the 2015 agreement successfully pushed Iran's nuclear breakout timeline far into the future.
• The deal was achieved by creating a unified international sanctions regime while clarifying the U.S. goal was not regime change but halting the nuclear threat.
• The agreement established the most intrusive inspections regime in arms control history, providing extensive data on Iran's technology.
• Israeli military and intelligence officials generally oppose leaving the deal, acknowledging it has delayed a significant threat to Israel.
• Sanctions relief primarily returned Iran's own frozen assets; intelligence suggests these funds addressed domestic economic deficiencies rather than funding Hezbollah or the IRGC.

Syria and the Limits of Intervention:

• Blinken expresses a "profound sense of responsibility and failure" regarding the U.S. inability to stop the Syrian civil war, which has displaced over 12 million refugees.
• He advocates for an approach balancing "humility" (recognizing U.S. problems are often not about America) with a willingness to use U.S. convening power.
• Military leaders historically resisted intervention due to fears of "slippery slopes" where initial force inevitably escalates to deeper, uncontrollable engagement.
• Blinken acknowledges that non-intervention also carries severe unintended consequences, such as the refugee crisis.

Foundations of Effective Diplomacy:

• Diplomacy is defined as an extension of human relations requiring empathy and an understanding of the universal human desire for dignity.
• Stripping people of dignity has profound psychological effects, driving nations toward conflict.
• Blinken draws on personal family history—grandparents fleeing pogroms, a stepmother escaping communism, and a stepfather surviving the Holocaust—to illustrate the U.S. tradition of welcoming refugees.
• He concludes that the American role as a unique welcome to those in need is a story currently in "jeopardy" but remains central to the nation's identity and diplomatic success.