Interview
Talks at GS – Tony Blinken: Diplomacy: The First Response
- Diplomacy is forecast to become more extreme and costly if it is diminished, downplayed, degraded, defunded, or underfunded, potentially forcing the Department of Defense to purchase additional capabilities to compensate for State Department shortfalls.
- Structured policy development incorporating intellectual honesty and diverse perspectives is expected to improve outcomes in foreign policy and national security, even if initial policies face real-world challenges.
- The North Korean nuclear issue is predicted to worsen without engagement, as Kim Jong-un views his nuclear arsenal as essential insurance and is unlikely to negotiate while the regime accelerates ICBM capabilities with nuclear warheads capable of reaching the United States.
- U.S. sanctions against North Korea are expected to be effective only if China acts as a key partner; if China remains unable or unwilling to cooperate, the United States plans to incentivize pressure through sustained missile defense deployments, increased military exercises with South Korea and Japan, and targeting entities supporting the North Korean government.
- Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal is predicted to be a significant error that would reverse progress in pushing the nuclear problem further into the future, a move opposed by the Israeli military and intelligence community which acknowledges the deal removed a major concern.
- Funds returned to Iran from frozen accounts are expected to be overwhelmingly directed toward the domestic economy rather than funding the IRGC or Hezbollah.
- Complex Middle East problems are not expected to be solvable through a single switch of diplomatic, economic, or military means, and while showing military muscle in Syria may have leveraged diplomacy, it remains uncertain whether it would have altered outcomes.
- Military intervention carries the risk of a "slippery slope" where each failed action creates pressure for subsequent engagement, whereas taking no action in situations like Syria is expected to generate unintended consequences such as a refugee crisis.
- The United States retains the world's greatest convening and diplomatic power and is expected to continue engaging in regional issues despite diminishing relative standing, with future success predicted to rely on basic human empathy and an understanding of the human thirst for dignity.
- Traditional U.S. roles as a welcoming nation for refugees and immigrants, currently perceived to be in jeopardy, are expected to remain vital to successful diplomatic endeavors.