The art of deception in modern war | The Economist

Deception as a strategic tool for shaping adversary expectations:

• Modern surveillance capabilities (satellites, drones) make hiding movements difficult, but the primary goal of deception is now to mislead an enemy's anticipation of intent rather than just hiding presence.
• Successful deception requires the adversary to commit resources to a false problem; once committed, these resources cannot be rapidly redeployed.
• Historical precedents include the Allied strategy at Calais to mislead the Germans regarding the Normandy landings.

Case studies where intelligence failed to predict intent despite seeing capability:

• Ukraine: Accurately assessed Russian troop density north of Kyiv but failed to deduce the intent for invasion, leading to the incorrect assumption that an attack was not imminent.
• Israel: Detailed observation of Hamas preparations did not translate into an accurate prediction of the October 7th attacks.
• Russia: Observed Ukrainian preparations for the Kursk incursion but seemingly misread the broader strategic implications.
• United States: Recognized Iran's capability to close the Strait of Hormuz 40 years ago but likely misjudged the timing or likelihood of execution.

Modern application of decoys in transparent battlespaces:

• Even when adversaries can see activity, decoys remain effective for "forcing" the enemy to waste scarce munitions on false targets.
• Current artillery and drone warfare tactics prioritize striking false objects to lure opposing forces into revealing their own positions.

The human density required to support uncrewed systems (drone operations):

• Contrary to the assumption that automation eliminates manpower, deploying FPV drones with munitions actually increases the logistical and human footprint in the immediate combat zone.
• Operational team composition for a single FPV unit: Requires a team of approximately five people across three distinct locations (operator, pilot, security, communications/antenna runner, fusing specialist).
• Logistical weight: Supporting a single operator with 50 drones requires roughly one ton to 1.5 tons of equipment, including munitions, batteries, antennas, generators, food, water, and cabling.
• Infrastructure requirements: The team requires two vehicles and extensive digging to conceal the equipment and operators from enemy electronic warfare and reconnaissance.
• Sustainability and risk: The operational endurance of such a team is limited to approximately three days, and the vehicles are highly vulnerable to destruction, necessitating a continuous cycle of repositioning and replacement.