Conference Presentation, Panel
The Big Picture for Global Media (updated)
Milken InstituteGale Anne Hurd, Michael Lynton, Leslie Moonves, Robert Pittman, Julia Boorstin, Les Moonves
- Content quality is predicted to remain the primary driver of consumer behavior, with audiences expected to seek out great content regardless of platform while rejecting non-innovative reliance on past successes.
- Advertising budgets are expected to follow consumer behavior with a noted lag, though rapid changes may accelerate this alignment.
- Live television and major live events are projected to remain resilient and undiverted by DVRs due to the demand for immediate social media participation, with social media serving as a propeller for event growth rather than a savior for the medium.
- Social media is expected to accelerate the dissemination of negative news and verdicts, with content receiving overnight judgments that can destroy a product's prospects if it fails to meet expectations.
- The industry is expected to undergo a "renaissance in television drama" driven by binge-watching behaviors among teenagers and younger demographics, allowing for expanded character arcs and entire season releases.
- Streaming is predicted to become a critical component of business models, with platforms like HuluPlus expected to compete directly with Netflix and competitors like Aereo potentially prompting legal, financial, or congressional remedies.
- Rising content prices are expected due to increased competition from new entrants like Netflix and Amazon, while the economics of terrestrial radio simulcasts are anticipated to fail, necessitating alternative payment models.
- International markets are forecast to surpass domestic revenues as the primary business driver, with movies increasingly opening globally before domestic releases to mitigate piracy risks.
- Mobile devices are expected to transform advertising and content consumption, with mobile viewing outside the United States anticipated to grow significantly and connected individuals driving increased consumption during commutes.
- The film industry outlook includes a prediction that mid-range films targeting specific audiences will succeed while broad-appeal projects may fail, with small independent distributors potentially replaced by VOD and four-walling models.
- Digital advertising metrics, specifically CPMs and volume, are expected to rise in upcoming fronts, alongside strong performance in interactive sales.
- Network television is predicted to retain more power than cable counterparts, while cable networks may adopt repeated episode models to maximize viewership opportunities.
- Future technological shifts are characterized as unpredictable, likely to be quick, sudden, and unexpected, with no specific disruptive technology identified for the near term.
- Industry consolidation is expected to continue in a recurring cycle, while specific entities like Sony are not expected to pursue further M&A activity.
- CBS projects continued success in the movie business and the future brightens if content remains desirable, with plans to monetize through diverse channels including direct-to-consumer sites.
- Aereo-related risks involve potential legal proceedings where the speaker expects to win, though financial or regulatory remedies are prepared as contingency measures if forced to reclassify as a cable channel.
- Custom radio features are predicted to evolve into standard "table stakes" capabilities within broader services rather than functioning as standalone businesses.
- The summer industry outlook is described as both promising and risky due to the high volume of major releases.
- Content creators anticipate the necessity of precise eyeball counting for compensation, while the broader industry is viewed as dynamic due to the nature of producers constantly adapting to changes.
- Apple TV is expected to eventually debut, marking a long-awaited development in the connected device space.