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Interview, Fireside Chat

The Case For Data Centers In Space

Y CombinatorPhilip Johnston, Mark Mandelmann
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  • Predictions and Expectations:
    • Philip Johnston expects that by 2028, Starship will ramp up launch cadence and phase out Falcon 9 for commercial customers.
    • He believes that in the next two to three years, the company will secure four contracts with defense and government entities.
    • Johnston predicts that data centers in space will become a national security issue for the West over the next 100 years.
    • He expects launch costs to be 10 times lower than today and launch capacity to be 1,000 times higher than current levels within a three to four year timeframe.
    • The speaker is not 100% sure what specific payload will fly on the first launch but expects "something is gonna be on there."
    • Johnston believes that in about two years, the company will launch a Bitcoin mining ASIC on StarCloud 2.
    • He expects the team to solve the "two biggest" engineering challenges: heat dissipation in a vacuum and radiation resistance.
    • He expects that eventually 88,000 StarCloud 3 satellites will fly in orbit.
    • He predicts that by the time StarCloud 4 or later is launched, the constellation will cover the Earth as a giant network.
    • Johnston believes that people are realizing software may not have a moat anymore, which is driving investment toward hard tech.
    • He expects regulatory hurdles to be significantly lower for space data centers compared to terrestrial ones.
    • He expects the largest data center deployments on Earth to be around 1 gigawatt.
    • He believes that 20 gigawatts of new data capacity is feasible, which is roughly 22 gigawatts of compute.
    • He expects that 20 gigawatts of capacity can be filled up to 10 terawatts in a DawnDOS unsynchronous orbit.
    • He expects the company to become profitable with commercial-scale data centers.
    • He believes that the "fastest growing unicorn in YC history" status was achieved just 17 months after Demo Day.
    • He expects that by end of 2028, the company will start competing with terrestrial data centers for the business.
    • He believes that the convergence of lower launch costs and terrestrial building constraints will make the idea investable.
    • He expects that the "entire US power grid" capacity is approximately 50 gigawatts (implied by the 20x multiplier of 10 terawatts).
    • He believes that the radiation environment in LEO is solvable with off-the-shelf automotive components and shielding.
    • He expects that the team can run H100, B200, and H200 GPUs in space by modifying the chips.
    • He expects that optical terminals on the second satellite will allow shipping enormous amounts of raw satellite imagery and SAR data.
    • He expects that the new space chip designed with NVIDIA will be more effective in space.
    • He expects that the team will have "the world's best space engineers" on the roster.
    • He expects that the company will launch a "StarCloud meme coin" on the satellite, though he notes it is not official.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 3 satellite, at 200 kilowatts and three tons, will fit 50 units per Starship.
    • He expects that 88,000 satellites will fly "from StarCloud 3 onwards."
    • He expects that the "next 20 satellites" will have Starlink laser terminals signed via contract.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 1 satellite will be left Chinese airspace by the time of the interview.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 1 satellite travels around 17,000 miles an hour.
    • He expects that StarCloud 1 takes about an hour and a half to do one circumnavigation.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 1 satellite will be deployed in mid-inclination orbit initially.
    • He expects that future satellites will fly over the poles to achieve 24-hour sunlight.
    • He expects that drag from the upper atmosphere will require thrusters to maintain orbit.
    • He expects that the new deployable radiator will be 10 times less mass per watt of dissipation than the ISS radiator.
    • He expects that the new deployable radiator will be 500 times less cost per watt of dissipation than the ISS radiator.
    • He expects that the team will expose hardware to a 24-hour period of radiation equivalent to a five-year mission.
    • He expects that the team will test 10 components and pick the best one for radiation tolerance.
    • He expects that the team will not use space-grade rad-hard components to save costs.
    • He expects that the "first two months" of the company involved space-based solar concepts.
    • He expects that the launch cost breakeven for space-based solar was $50 a kilo.
    • He expects that the launch cost breakeven for data centers in space is $500 a kilo.
    • He expects that the "first launch" booked on January 2nd, 2024, was 18 months out initially, then pushed to 21 months out.
    • He expects that the first launch cost was "300 grand."
    • He expects that StarCloud 1 flew five GPUs (two-three from NVIDIA, two from Arm, and one NVIDIA H100).
    • He expects that the team will train the first model, run the first version of Gemini, do the first fine-tuning, and perform high-power inference on satellite imagery in orbit.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 1 satellite will have "software issues" that cause it to restart every two hours initially.
    • He expects that the team will manually turn off triggers and wait for ground station passes to diagnose software issues.
    • He expects that the commissioning period for StarCloud 1 was two weeks after fixing the software issues.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 2 satellite will be a 10 kilowatt spacecraft for government and military customers.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 3 satellite will be a 200 kilowatt, three-ton spacecraft about six meters long.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 3 satellite will generate 10 megawatts of new compute capacity per Starship.
    • He expects that the company has filed with the FCC for a constellation of 88,000 satellites.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 1 satellite will be in mid-inclination orbit initially, not flying over the poles.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 2 satellite will have three optical terminals.
    • He expects that the StarCloud 3 satellite will be the first to sell to hyperscale data centers.
    • He expects that the team will launch the "outpost hardware" with AWS for military customers.
    • He expects that the team will launch a Bitcoin mining ASIC on StarCloud 2 next year.
    • He expects that the team will launch a "StarCloud meme coin" on the satellite.
    • He expects that the team will have 20 engineers.
    • He expects that the team will have one commercial guy from the space force.
    • He expects that the team will be "ruthlessly slow at hiring."
    • He expects that the team will be "picky about who they hire."
    • He expects that the team will have "the most kick-ass space engineer" as their first hire.
    • He expects that the team will have "half of them from SpaceX."
    • He expects that the team will have "some of the hyperscalers."
    • He expects that the team will have "the world's best space engineers."
    • He expects that the team will have "the best and most kick-ass space engineers."
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