Conference Presentation, Interview, Fireside Chat
The Comeback: How Innovation Will Restore the American Dream
- Predicts the next generation of Americans "may not have a better life" despite superior technology due to current generations "borrowing from" children, creating future debt that hinders prosperity.
- Forecasts the U.S. will face continued decline and be "no longer number one" within five to ten years if national habits are not corrected, citing a health crisis where economic assumptions are "very, very Pollyannish."
- Warns of deep financial trouble and unsustainable spending trajectories that require intervention such as cutting spending, raising taxes, or fostering growth through innovation to avoid facing the nation "doing terribly."
- Projects infrastructure decline, including "roads with a lot of potholes," and asserts that a stimulus infrastructure allocation of "6% or 7%" is insufficient to prevent economic deterioration.
- Identifies U.S. government actions as harmful to innovation, specifically attacking companies like Google, Microsoft, Intel, and Qualcomm, which encourages other nations to sue them, while tax policies discourage investment by forcing capital overseas to avoid double taxation.
- Cites specific operational and political costs, including a halted Boeing Dreamliner factory in South Carolina costing "over a billion dollars" and stopping "Over 1,000" workers, alongside a political environment where Congress prioritizes party over the nation.
- Outlines a need to reallocate resources toward education, innovation, and a good immigration system, predicting that silver bullet solutions from both major parties are wrong and that neither "tax-and-spend" nor "cut-waste" views reflect reality.
- Proposes specific economic adjustments, including raising gasoline prices by "$0.05 every six months" and auctioning spectrum from broadcasters serving fewer than "10% of American homes" to address a "severe spectrum shortage" where smartphones use "25 times" and tablets "120 times" more data than five years ago.
- Forecasts protracted ambiguity for the AT&T and T-Mobile merger, noting a hearing scheduled for "February 13," and predicting that if the deal fails, AT&T must pay "$3 billion" in penalties.
- Highlights a cultural shift away from accepting failure, which stifles risk-taking among older employees, while noting that young people with "nothing to lose" remain primary drivers of entrepreneurship and can create "multinational company" overnight.
- Suggests the U.S. loses its competitive edge without a national strategy on innovation and warns against regulating innovation as "bad," emphasizing that innovation historically destroys industries and jobs, such as the transition from horse buggies to automobiles.
- Recommends prioritizing funding for venture capitalists over inexperienced officials, adopting a "competitive culture" with clear winners and losers, and correcting past financial errors regarding "16,000 financial instruments" rated "AAA" by agencies.
- Calls for education system reforms to value technical skills and tradespeople similar to German guilds, utilizing technology to foster innovation, and establishing clear standards for antitrust laws and legislation rather than "lengthy morasses" like the "2,000 pages" of the health care bill.
- Projects that the U.S. must resist political correctness and strikes to compete with international strategies like Germany's "precision manufacturing," while acknowledging the difficulty of taxpayer money investing in high-risk ventures where companies may go under.