Panel, Conference Presentation
The Final Frontier: Space as a Business Opportunity
Milken InstituteJane Wells, Chad Anderson, Steve Isakowitz, Jennifer Lopez, Will Marshall, Philip McAlister, Phil McAllister
- Valuations for the space business are projected to reach nearly $3 trillion over a 30-year horizon, while the sector has recorded 160 exits since 2009 totaling $26 billion, with average exits in space nine times higher than in general technology.
- Human missions to Mars are estimated for 2030 as a realistic timeframe, though aggressive targets as early as 2022 are possible, with cargo missions potentially occurring around 2022 and a mix of government and private involvement expected within the next decade.
- A self-sustainable Moon settlement is predicted for the early 2020s, driven by the private sector, leveraging the discovery of water, the Falcon Heavy rocket, and the Moon's shorter travel time of one and a half days compared to Mars's eight months.
- Commercial human launches are anticipated within the next 10 to 20 months, with the Commercial Crew Program expected to foster increased NASA-private sector partnerships and allow commercial utilization of spacecraft without restrictive intellectual property strings.
- The launch market is evolving to fill a gap through new small and large private vehicles, with specific milestones including a NanoRacks commercial station service generating revenue, a $900 million incremental revenue from the Space Station since 2011, and an Astrobotic small lander launch scheduled in 1.5 years.
- Recent Space Station initiatives include the upcoming launch of a 3D bioprinting facility, a recycler, and a fab lab, with 70% of CASIS projects in fiscal year 2017 going to new-to-space customers.
- The industry is shifting from government-led to private-sector-driven innovation, with 80% of tracked portfolio companies generating revenue and proven technology, alongside a legislative framework established in 2015 allowing business operations without interference while prohibiting celestial object ownership.
- Critical risks include space traffic congestion and debris accumulation from rising satellite launches, which could render commercial activities impossible without urgent implementation of regulations, enhanced tracking systems, and collision avoidance technologies like GPS on satellites or ground-based lasers.